Two Vermont Governor Polls Disagree by 16 Points. Which One Is Right?

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One Poll Has Amanda Janoo Up Six in the Vermont Governor Race. Here's What's Actually Happening

Two polls of the Vermont governor's race published three days apart reached opposite conclusions, and prediction markets are repricing the uncertainty. A University of New Hampshire survey released September 25 put Democrat Amanda Janoo ahead of Republican incumbent Phil Scott by six points. Three days later, a Vermont Public poll showed Scott leading by 10. That 16-point spread between surveys conducted in the same week is the largest inter-poll divergence in a Vermont statewide race in recent memory.

Janoo's implied probability in the Vermont Governor winner? prediction market climbed from 16% to 24% over the past three days, a 50% relative increase in her assessed chances. The move began shortly after the UNH result dropped and partially stalled once the Vermont Public numbers offered a counter-narrative. At 24%, the market is saying Janoo has roughly a one-in-four shot at ending Scott's tenure on November 3.

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Amanda Janoo (D)

Consensus YES price across 2 venues

21%average

KalshiBest YES price23¢PredictIt33¢

Phil Scott (R)

Consensus YES price across 2 venues

81%average

KalshiBest YES price78¢PredictIt85¢

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Are There Reliable Polls for Amanda Janoo vs. Phil Scott in the 2026 Vermont Governor Race?

Yes, but there are only two public polls, and they contradict each other. The UNH survey (September 25) found Janoo at approximately 48% and Scott at approximately 42%, giving Janoo a six-point lead. The Vermont Public poll (September 28) reversed that picture, placing Scott at roughly 42% and Janoo around 32%, a 10-point Scott advantage. Both polls sampled likely voters in the same state during the same week.

Vermont's polling infrastructure is thin compared to larger states. In most gubernatorial cycles, voters see two or three public polls total before Election Day. That scarcity means each new data point carries outsized influence on prediction market pricing. When UNH showed Janoo leading, the market had to contend with the possibility that a historically dominant Republican governor was genuinely trailing. When Vermont Public contradicted that three days later, the market had no clean way to average the two.

If the UNH result is closer to reality, 24% looks cheap. A Democrat leading an incumbent governor by six points with five weeks to go would typically trade above 40% in a prediction market. If the Vermont Public result is the accurate snapshot, 24% may already be generous for a challenger trailing by double digits in a state where Scott has won multiple terms comfortably.

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The Case Against Janoo: Phil Scott's Structural Advantages

The strongest argument that Janoo's 24% is overpriced rests on Scott's incumbency and Vermont's unusual political dynamics. Scott has built a brand as a moderate Republican governing a deep-blue state with consistent approval ratings above 60% for most of his tenure. Vermont voters have shown a willingness to split tickets, electing Scott alongside progressive federal representatives cycle after cycle. That pattern does not break easily.

The Vermont Public poll's 10-point Scott lead aligns more closely with historical margins in Scott's previous races. If his approval rating has held, a single UNH result showing Janoo ahead could reflect sampling noise rather than a genuine shift in voter sentiment. Vermont's small population makes polling inherently volatile; even well-conducted surveys can produce margins of error above five points. A 16-point spread between two polls is alarming, but it could simply reflect the limits of polling in a state with roughly 500,000 registered voters.

Scott also enters the final stretch with built-in fundraising and name-recognition advantages that incumbents carry in every cycle. Janoo, running her first statewide campaign, faces the challenge of converting poll momentum (if it exists) into ground-level turnout in rural areas where Scott consistently overperforms.

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Why the Market Moved 8 Percentage Points and What Comes Next

Before September 25, the market had very little recent polling data to work with. Janoo sat at 16%, a price consistent with a heavy underdog in a state where the incumbent has won repeatedly. The UNH result injected genuine uncertainty. Even traders skeptical of the poll had to acknowledge the possibility it was correct, and in a low-information environment, "possible" translates quickly into "priced."

The Vermont Public counter-poll partially arrested the rally, but not entirely. The market settled at 24% rather than retreating to 16%, suggesting traders are treating the UNH result as real information rather than pure noise. Janoo priced at roughly one-in-four reflects a market that believes Scott is favored but acknowledges the race could be closer than his incumbency would suggest.

What moves the price from here depends almost entirely on whether additional polling materializes before November 3. A third poll showing Janoo competitive would likely push her above 30%. A third poll confirming Scott's double-digit lead would compress her back toward the mid-teens. In the absence of new data, the market will drift on campaign events, endorsements, and debate performances, none of which carry the same repricing power as a fresh survey. For the latest live pricing, visit the Vermont Governor winner? odds page.

The core question for traders evaluating Janoo at 24% is not which poll is correct. It is whether the true state of the race falls within a range where Janoo has a plausible path to victory. A 16-point spread between surveys means the answer is genuinely uncertain, and genuine uncertainty in a data-scarce race is exactly the condition where prediction markets tend to misprice the underdog.