Who Will Win Best Actor at the 2027 Oscars? Latest News

Live market odds

3 venues

Oscar Winner: Best Actor

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi, Polymarket and Predict.fun.

John MalkovichIn this story

45%

KalshiBest price2.50x40¢Polymarket2.15x46.6¢Predict.fun1.93x51.7¢

Andrew Scott

24%

KalshiBest price4.17x24¢Polymarket3.85x26¢Predict.fun3.64x27.5¢

Matt Damon

16%

PolymarketBest price6.25x16¢Kalshi5.56x18¢Predict.fun5.56x18¢

Tom Cruise

6%

KalshiBest price20.00x5¢Polymarket14.29x7¢Predict.fun10.10x9.9¢

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Background

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will name the Best Actor winner at the 99th Academy Awards on March 14, 2027, with nominations announced in early 2027. John Malkovich, 72, leads the market. He has two earlier nominations, both in the supporting category, and has never won. His bid rests on Wild Horse Nine, Martin McDonagh's black comedy, which won him the Best Actor prize at Venice in September 2026 and is backed by Searchlight Pictures. Others in the conversation include Matt Damon (The Odyssey), Andrew Scott (Elsinore), Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary) and Robert Pattinson.

The market settles on a single winner, so the field's combined chance is whatever Malkovich's price leaves over. The race is still open: the film's US release, reviews, box office, guild nominations including SAG, and the Oscar nominations can all reshape it before the March ceremony. Prices reflect what traders expect, not a poll or a forecast model.

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Nov. 3, 2026: John Malkovich's Best Actor Oscar Odds Hit 48% Before Wild Horse Nine

John Malkovich's chances of winning the Best Actor Oscar stand at 48% in the Oscar Winner: Best Actor market on Nov. 3, 2026, making him the leading contender. He has two prior Oscar nominations, both for Supporting Actor, and has never won. His bid rests on Wild Horse Nine, Martin McDonagh's black comedy, which won him the Volpi Cup for Best Actor at Venice in September 2026. The film opens in US theaters Nov 5-6. The Sydney Morning Herald has discussed the Oscar buzz around the role.

John Malkovich's Best Actor Oscar Chances: 48% in the Market After a Three-Day Rise

Traders priced Malkovich at 48% on Nov. 3, 2026. That is up about 7 percentage points from 41% three days earlier. Kalshi showed 46% and Polymarket showed 49%. The 48% is a market-implied probability, the price traders pay for a contract that settles on the March 14, 2027 ceremony. It is not a poll or a forecast model. The market has gained about 9 percentage points since it priced Malkovich at 39% after the Venice win in September.

What the Market Appears to Price for Malkovich and Wild Horse Nine

Three facts are on the record. First, Malkovich won the Volpi Cup. He plays Chris Carlisle, a CIA assassin in 1973 Chile who is dying of cancer and addicted to morphine. Second, Searchlight Pictures is running the campaign. Third, the US opening is set for Nov 5-6. The film has already played Telluride, where Malkovich received a tribute, along with TIFF and the London Film Festival.

The reading that follows is interpretation, not established cause. Before the release, traders appear to be buying a festival-prize winner who has studio backing. Malkovich has played down the race himself. He told Variety that campaigning is now "the only way to get people in theaters." He has also said he will go away to direct a play for two months in Japan.

Who Else Is in the Best Actor Conversation Alongside Malkovich

A 48% price means traders still give the rest of the field slightly better than even combined odds. The contenders include:

• Matt Damon (The Odyssey)
• Andrew Scott (Elsinore)
• Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary), whom Gold Derby reported in October as re-entering the field
• Robert Pattinson

Tom Cruise's Digger has drawn mixed reviews.

The price reflects what traders expect, not a result. The Academy announces nominations in early 2027 and names the winner on March 14. Until then, the Oscar Winner: Best Actor market can shift with US reviews, box office from the Nov 5-6 opening, and the precursor awards.

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Earlier Updates

Sept. 22, 2026: John Malkovich Wins Venice Best Actor, Jumps to 39% for 2027 Oscar

John Malkovich27% → 39%▲12

On September 22, 2026, John Malkovich was reported as the frontrunner for the 2027 Best Actor Oscar after winning the Best Actor prize at the 83rd Venice Film Festival for Wild Horse Nine, a Martin McDonagh film. Malkovich accepted the award by video message, saying he was humbled to be chosen, and was reported to have been unable to attend because of filming commitments in Montreal.