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Live prediction market odds for Oscar Winner: Best Actor. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket

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Oscar Winner: Best Actor

2027-03-14

Best price · tap to trade

John Malkovich32¢3.13xKalshiMatt Damon26¢3.85xKalshiAndrew Scott21¢4.76xKalshi
Compare all 28 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give John Malkovich about a 33.8% chance. Matt Damon follows at 23.8%, Andrew Scott follows at 22.0%, and Tom Cruise follows at 14.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 6.0 percentage points.

Traders give John Malkovich about a 33.8% chance. Matt Damon follows at 23.8%, Andrew Scott follows at 22.0%, and Tom Cruise follows at 14.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 6.0 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Oscar Winner for Best Actor, set to be announced on March 14, 2027. The winner is determined by the Academy Awards voting results, which can be influenced by film festival performances and critical acclaim leading up to the event.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
JM
John MalkovichARB
34%
Kalshi32¢
Polymarket36¢
Kalshi3.13x32¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
31.5%31¢32¢68¢69¢
PolymarketPolymarket
36.1%36¢36¢64¢64¢
MD
Matt DamonARB
24%
Kalshi26¢
Polymarket22¢
Kalshi3.85x26¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
26.0%25¢26¢74¢75¢
PolymarketPolymarket
21.5%21¢22¢78¢79¢
AS
Andrew Scott
22%
Kalshi21¢
Polymarket24¢
Kalshi4.76x21¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
21.0%20¢21¢79¢80¢
PolymarketPolymarket
23.0%22¢24¢76¢78¢
TC
Tom CruiseARB
14%
Kalshi18¢
Polymarket12¢
Kalshi5.56x18¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
17.0%16¢18¢82¢84¢
PolymarketPolymarket
11.0%10¢12¢88¢90¢
RP
Robert Pattinson
6%
Kalshi6¢
Polymarket8¢
Kalshi16.67x6¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
5.5%5¢6¢94¢95¢
PolymarketPolymarket
7.3%5¢8¢92¢95¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About John Malkovich

John Malkovich is an American actor, producer, and director. He has received a Primetime Emmy Award and nominations for two Academy Awards, a BAFTA Award, and three Golden Globe Awards. Malkovich began his career as a charter member of the Steppenwolf Theatre Company in Chicago in 1976.

About Matt Damon

Matt Damon is an American actor, screenwriter, and producer. He won the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay for 'Good Will Hunting' in 1998. He has been recognized with various awards and nominations, including an Academy Award, two Golden Globe Awards, and a Screen Actors Guild Award.

About Andrew Scott

Andrew Scott is an Irish actor known for his roles in film, television, and theater. He gained prominence portraying James Moriarty in the BBC series 'Sherlock' and received a BAFTA Television Award for Best Supporting Actor. Scott's diverse career includes acclaimed performances in 'Fleabag,' '1917,' and 'All of Us Strangers,' showcasing his versatility and depth as an actor.

About Tom Cruise

Tom Cruise is an American actor and producer. He is best known for his role as Ethan Hunt in the 'Mission: Impossible' series. Cruise has received multiple awards, including three Critics' Choice Super Awards for Best Actor in an Action Film.

About Robert Pattinson

Robert Pattinson is an English actor and producer. He gained prominence for his role as Edward Cullen in the 'Twilight Saga' and has since starred in films like 'The Batman' and 'Mickey 17'. As of August 2026, he continues to be active in the film industry, with recent projects including 'Die My Love' and 'Mickey 17'.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread6.0%
Platforms2
Candidates28
Leader

John Malkovich

33.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Oscar Winner: Best Actor

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Tom Cruise has won Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The 99 Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

When will the Oscar Winner for Best Actor be announced?

The Oscar Winner for Best Actor will be announced on March 14, 2027. This date marks the 95th Academy Awards ceremony.

What factors influence the odds for Best Actor nominees?

Odds for Best Actor nominees are influenced by film festival performances, critical reviews, and industry awards leading up to the Oscars. These elements can sway public and voter perception of each nominee.

How is the winner of the Best Actor Oscar determined?

The winner of the Best Actor Oscar is determined by the votes of the Academy members. The nominee receiving the most votes is awarded the Oscar during the ceremony.

What does the Oscar Winner: Best Actor prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Oscar Winner: Best Actor odds?

The latest available prices are John Malkovich: 31.5¢ on Kalshi, 36.1¢ on Polymarket; Matt Damon: 26.0¢ on Kalshi, 21.5¢ on Polymarket; Andrew Scott: 21.0¢ on Kalshi, 23.0¢ on Polymarket; Tom Cruise: 17.0¢ on Kalshi, 11.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

John Malkovich Wins Venice Best Actor, Jumps to 39% for 2027 OscarHis Wild Horse Nine win at Venice pushed him 12 points to 39% in three days, making him the first clear frontrunner in the 2027 Best Actor race.Sep 22, 2026Malkovich Jumps to Oscar Best Actor Frontrunner After Venice WinHis Venice Best Actor prize for 'Wild Horse Nine' pushed him from 24% to 36% in three days. He has never won an Oscar.Sep 20, 2026Cruise Hits 26% for Best Actor as Scott's 'Elsinore' Storms TIFFCruise gained 8 points in three days to 26%, even as Andrew Scott's 'Elsinore' drew frontrunner praise at TIFF and Malkovich won Venice.Sep 18, 2026Nolan Casting Pushes Cruise's Best Actor Odds to 24% With No Film ShotCruise jumped from 15% to 24% on casting news alone. Kalshi has him at 28%; Polymarket sits at 19%, a 9-point platform split.Sep 11, 2026