Live prediction market odds for Oscar Winner: Best Actor. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.
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Compare all 31 outcomes across 3 venuesTraders give John Malkovich about a 41.7% chance. Andrew Scott follows at 23.8%, Matt Damon follows at 16.5%, and Tom Cruise follows at 5.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 12.2 percentage points.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Predict.fun.
KalshiIf Tom Cruise has won Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
The 99 Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.
Predict.funThe Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Oscar Winner for Best Actor will be announced on March 14, 2027. This date marks the 95th Academy Awards ceremony.
Odds for Best Actor nominees are influenced by film festival performances, critical reviews, and industry awards leading up to the Oscars. These elements can sway public and voter perception of each nominee.
The winner of the Best Actor Oscar is determined by the votes of the Academy members. The nominee receiving the most votes is awarded the Oscar during the ceremony.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are John Malkovich: 39.5¢ on Kalshi, 43.9¢ on Polymarket, 51.7¢ on Predict.fun; Andrew Scott: 23.5¢ on Kalshi, 24.0¢ on Polymarket, 24.5¢ on Predict.fun; Matt Damon: 17.5¢ on Kalshi, 15.5¢ on Polymarket, 15.1¢ on Predict.fun; Tom Cruise: 4.5¢ on Kalshi, 6.5¢ on Polymarket, 7.3¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
