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Live prediction market odds for 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Opinion.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Polymarket / Opinion

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10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

2026-12-31

Best price · tap to trade

10.0 or above earthquake before 20271¢100.00xPolymarket

About This Market

Traders give 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027 about a 2.7% chance. Compare prices from Polymarket and Opinion. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.8 percentage points.

Traders give 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027 about a 2.7% chance. Compare prices from Polymarket and Opinion. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.8 percentage points.

Polymarket and Opinion are tracking the likelihood of a 10.0 or above earthquake occurring before the end of 2026. Such seismic events can have catastrophic impacts on communities and infrastructure, making this a critical area of concern for scientists and policymakers alike.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
PolymarketPolymarket
OpinionOpinion
Best price
1O
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027ARB
1%
Polymarket1¢
—
Polymarket71.43x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
1.3%1¢1¢99¢99¢
OpinionOpinion
—4¢——96¢
PolymarketPolymarketOpinionOpinion

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

OpinionOpinion
Opinion AIearthquake.usgs.gov
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.8%
Platforms2
Candidates1
Leader

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027

2.7% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Opinion.

OpinionOpinion
Primary Rule

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Resolution Oracles
Opinion AIearthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the likelihood of a major earthquake?

Earthquakes are influenced by tectonic plate movements, geological stress, and historical seismic activity in a region. Monitoring these factors helps scientists assess potential risks.

How are prediction markets used in assessing earthquake risks?

Prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions and data to estimate the probability of specific events, such as earthquakes. They can reflect public sentiment and expert analysis regarding seismic risks.

What are the potential consequences of a 10.0 or above earthquake?

A 10.0 or above earthquake could lead to widespread destruction, loss of life, and long-term economic impacts. Infrastructure damage and humanitarian crises would likely follow such a catastrophic event.

What does the 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027 prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Polymarket, Opinion in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027 odds?

The latest available prices are 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027: 1.3¢ on Polymarket, 4.1¢ on Opinion. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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