Why do Chile rate decision in October odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 1.9 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Chile rate decision in October prediction market payouts work?

For example, No change at 97.0¢ implies about a 97.0% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.

Kalshi

4.9

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Kalshi / Polymarket

Chile rate decision in October

Listed Oct 7, 2026 Updated Oct 20, 2026 Expected to settle by Oct 28, 2026

Best price · tap to trade

No change97¢1.03x

Kalshi

4.9

Sign-up bonus

Get a $35 trading bonus

Sign-up bonus on Kalshi.

Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Oct 16, 2026

Live Markets

2 platforms

OutcomeConsensus

Kalshi

Polymarket

Best price

No change

97%

97¢

99¢

1.03x97¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	96.0%	95¢	97¢	3¢	5¢
Polymarket	97.9%	97¢	99¢	1¢	3¢

Kalshi

Polymarket

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If the Central Bank of Chile takes the action of maintain current rate at its October Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "Maintain current rate" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings.

Resolution Oracles

Kalshi Rules

Polymarket

Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Chile (Banco Central de Chile), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Chile, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 27, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Chile calendar (https://www.bcentral.cl/es/web/banco-central/noticias-y-publicaciones/prensa/calendario-de-politica-monetaria-y-financiera). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Chile resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic Oraclebcentral.cl

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Chile October Rate Cut Odds Fall to 4% as Scotiabank Sees HikesThe cut contract fell 9 points in three days after Scotiabank forecast a hawkish bias on Oct. 27 and a 25bp hike on Dec. 15.Oct 18, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the date of the Chile rate decision?

The Chile rate decision is scheduled for October 27, 2026. This date marks the Central Bank's monetary policy meeting.

What factors influence the Chile rate decision?

The decision is influenced by various economic indicators, including inflation rates and economic growth. These factors are analyzed leading up to the meeting.

How does the market resolve?

The market resolves based on the official interest rate announced by the Central Bank of Chile. The rate set during the meeting on October 27 will determine the outcome.

What does the Chile rate decision in October prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Chile rate decision in October odds?

The latest available prices are No change: 96.0¢ on Kalshi, 97.9¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Chile rate decision in October

Chile rate decision in October

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

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Frequently Asked Questions

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Chile rate decision in October

Chile rate decision in October

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Chile rate decision in October

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Frequently Asked Questions

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