Chile October Rate Cut Odds Fall to 4% as Scotiabank Sees Hikes

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Will Chile Cut Rates in October 2026? The "Cut 1-25bps" Contract Falls to 4%

A cut at the October 27 meeting looks unlikely. The Banco Central de Chile held its monetary policy rate (TPM) at 4.5% by unanimous vote, according to The Intelligent. On October 14, Scotiabank said it expects no cut. The bank instead forecasts a tightening bias on October 27 and a 25bp hike at the December 15 meeting.

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Chile rate decision in October

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On Kalshi, the "Cut 1-25bps" contract in the Chile rate decision in October fell from 13% to 4% over three days, a drop of about 9 percentage points, and traded at 4% on Oct. 18. The repricing followed the Scotiabank note, but the sources do not establish that the note alone caused the move.

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Scotiabank's economic research team, led by chief economist Jorge Selaive, wrote that "material risks to inflation convergence have been materializing in recent weeks," La Tercera reported. The bank said it first proposed a TPM hike in its September 24 report and that those arguments "remain fully valid." La Tercera described the call as contrary to market consensus. It landed the same day U.S. September CPI data lifted bets on another Federal Reserve hike.

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What Could Confirm or Reverse the Chile Rate Call: October 27 and December 15

The October 27 monetary policy meeting is the first test. A hold at 4.5% with tightening-bias language in the statement would confirm Scotiabank's view. A cut of any size would reverse it.

December 15 is the second milestone. Scotiabank projects a 25bp hike there and an equal-sized increase in January 2027. Both are one bank's forecast, not a central bank commitment. Board signals on the outlook will appear in the central bank's Monetary Policy Report.

The counter-case is narrow: Scotiabank's view is a single institution's call against consensus, and the contract's remaining 4% reflects the small chance the board cuts anyway. Readers tracking every outcome can follow the full Chile October rate decision market. The next test arrives with the board's decision on October 27.