ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
Live prediction market odds for ECB Interest Rates: October 2026. Compare prices across .
Listed Resolved
This market resolved on Oct 29, 2026. No change was the officially declared outcome.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the ECB Interest Rates for October 2026.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the ECB Interest Rates for October 2026. This market resolves based on the European Central Bank's official decision regarding interest rates announced during their meeting in late October 2026, with odds influenced by economic indicators leading up to that date.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
No changeWINNER | Yes |
25 Bps Decrease | No |
25 Bps Increase | No |
50+ Bps Decrease | No |
50+ Bps Increase | No |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Predict.fun.
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Predict.funThis market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The ECB considers various economic indicators, including inflation rates, employment data, and economic growth. These factors help determine whether to raise, lower, or maintain interest rates.
Trading for the ECB Interest Rates market closes on October 30, 2026. This is the deadline for market participants to place their bets before the ECB's announcement.
Outcomes include no change in rates, a 25 basis points increase or decrease, and a 50+ basis points increase or decrease. Each outcome reflects different monetary policy scenarios considered by the ECB.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
