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Live prediction market odds for FL-12 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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FL-12 House winner?

Listed Sep 18, 2026 · Updated Oct 22, 2026 · Expected to settle by Jan 4, 2027

2026 Midterms hubNew

Every 2026 House seat beside the Senate and governor races, priced across every venue.
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Best price · tap to trade

Gus Bilirakis (R)84¢1.19xKalshiKimberly Overman (D)16¢6.25xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Gus Bilirakis (R) about a 83.8% chance. Kimberly Overman (D) follows at 15.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.0 percentage points.

Traders give Gus Bilirakis (R) about a 83.8% chance. Kimberly Overman (D) follows at 15.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the FL-12 House election. This market resolves based on the official election results announced on November 3, 2026, with odds fluctuating based on candidate campaigning and voter sentiment leading up to the election.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
GB
Gus Bilirakis (R)
84%
Kalshi84¢
Polymarket US85¢
Polymarket85¢
Kalshi1.19x84¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
83.5%83¢84¢16¢17¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
84.0%83¢85¢15¢17¢
PolymarketPolymarket
84.0%83¢85¢15¢17¢
KO
Kimberly Overman (D)
16%
Kalshi16¢
Polymarket US17¢
Polymarket16¢
Kalshi6.25x16¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
15.5%15¢16¢84¢85¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
16.5%16¢17¢83¢84¢
PolymarketPolymarket
15.5%15¢16¢84¢85¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Candidate Spotlight

About Gus Bilirakis (R)

Gus Bilirakis is the U.S. Representative for Florida's 12th Congressional District, serving since 2013. He previously represented Florida's 9th Congressional District from 2007 to 2013. As a senior member of the Energy and Commerce Committee, Bilirakis has authored 78 provisions signed into law, earning recognition as the 31st Most Effective Lawmaker in Congress by the Center for Effective Lawmaking at Vanderbilt University.

About Kimberly Overman (D)

Kimberly Overman is a Democratic candidate for Florida's 12th Congressional District in the 2026 elections. She previously served as Chair of the Hillsborough County Commission, where she led initiatives to improve local infrastructure and public services. Overman's extensive experience in local government and her leadership in community development make her a strong contender in this race.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.0%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Volume$91K
Leader

Gus Bilirakis (R)

83.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: FL-12 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for FL-12 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the FL-12 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

When does the FL-12 House election take place?

The FL-12 House election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date marks the official election day for voters.

What determines the resolution of this market?

This market resolves based on the official announcement of the FL-12 House election results. The winner is declared by the relevant election authorities.

How do candidate campaigns affect the odds in this market?

Candidate campaigns can influence voter sentiment, which in turn affects the odds in the market. As candidates engage in debates and outreach, traders adjust their predictions based on perceived chances of winning.

What does the FL-12 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest FL-12 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Gus Bilirakis (R): 83.5¢ on Kalshi, 84.0¢ on Polymarket, 84.0¢ on Polymarket US; Kimberly Overman (D): 15.5¢ on Kalshi, 15.5¢ on Polymarket, 16.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Overman's FL-12 Price Falls to 11%, but $5K Cash Makes Even That LookOverman dropped 8 points in three days. She has $5K cash vs. Bilirakis's $554K in a district he has held since 2007.Oct 11, 2026