Live prediction market odds for Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and PredictIt.
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Traders give Will the government shut down by Oct. 1 about a 1.0% chance. Compare prices from Kalshi and PredictIt.
Will the government shut down by Oct. 1
1.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable. Examples that would resolve the market to Yes: OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency" Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes: A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, PredictIt in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Will the government shut down by Oct. 1: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 1.0¢ on PredictIt. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 0.0 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, Will the government shut down by Oct. 1 at 1.0¢ implies about a 1.0% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.
