Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
Live prediction market odds for Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.
Listed Updated Expected to settle by
Traders give Nicolás Maduro about a 91.1% chance. Delcy Rodríguez follows at 7.8%, Vladimir Padrino López follows at 1.0%, and María Corina Machado follows at 0.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.7 percentage points.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Predict.funKalshiPolymarketPredict.funBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.
KalshiIf María Corina Machado officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
For the purposes of this contract, "officially holds" means any of the following: - María Corina Machado has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela - María Corina Machado is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela - María Corina Machado is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified) The following do **NOT** constitute "officially holding" the role: - Nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective - Appointed with an effective date *after* Dec 31, 2026 - Previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026 - Serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity - Named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed - Holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself
PolymarketThis market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa. In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Predict.funThis market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Factors include the current political climate, economic conditions, and international relations. Additionally, public sentiment and potential opposition movements play a crucial role.
Prediction markets aggregate bets from participants who speculate on future events, reflecting their expectations based on available information. The odds fluctuate as new developments occur in the political landscape.
Leadership in Venezuela by 2026 will impact the country's governance, economic recovery, and social stability. The choice of leader could also influence foreign relations and investment opportunities.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Nicolás Maduro: 90.4¢ on Kalshi, 91.8¢ on Polymarket, 91.5¢ on Predict.fun; Delcy Rodríguez: 8.7¢ on Kalshi, 7.0¢ on Polymarket, 7.9¢ on Predict.fun; Vladimir Padrino López: 1.8¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket, 1.0¢ on Predict.fun; María Corina Machado: 1.4¢ on Kalshi, 0.2¢ on Polymarket, 1.0¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
Smart money is heavily buying Nicolás Maduro
Buy Yes at 92¢Wallets with $10K+ lifetime profit · last 24h
Smart money is heavily buying Nicolás Maduro
Buy Yes at 92¢Wallets with $10K+ lifetime profit · last 24h
Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.
Trader up $15.7K lifetime bought $2.5K of Yes at 90¢
2h agoWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Trade on Kalshi Trader up $361K lifetime bought $2.1K of Yes at 58¢
5h agoWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Trade on Kalshi Trader up $361K lifetime sold $1.2K of Yes at 90¢
5h agoWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Trade on Kalshi Trader up $488K lifetime bought $4.6K of Yes at 92¢
5h agoWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Trade on Kalshi Trader up $2.5M lifetime bought $1.8K of Yes at 92¢
5h agoWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Trade on Kalshi 
