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Live prediction market odds for Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket / Predict.fun

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Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?

2026-12-31

Best price · tap to trade

Nicolás Maduro78¢1.28xKalshiDelcy Rodríguez23¢4.35xKalshiMaría Corina Machado3¢33.33xKalshi
Compare all 19 outcomes across 3 venues

About This Market

Traders give Nicolás Maduro about a 70.3% chance. Delcy Rodríguez follows at 25.0%, María Corina Machado follows at 1.9%, and No Head of State follows at 2.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 12.8 percentage points.

Traders give Nicolás Maduro about a 70.3% chance. Delcy Rodríguez follows at 25.0%, María Corina Machado follows at 1.9%, and No Head of State follows at 2.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 12.8 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026. The outcome will reflect the country's political stability and the direction of its governance amid ongoing economic challenges and international relations.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Predict.funPredict.fun
Best price
NM
Nicolás MaduroARB
70%
Kalshi78¢
Polymarket65¢
Predict.fun64¢
Kalshi1.28x78¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
76.0%74¢78¢22¢26¢
PolymarketPolymarket
64.5%64¢65¢35¢36¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
63.7%63¢64¢36¢37¢
DR
Delcy RodríguezARB
25%
Kalshi23¢
Polymarket30¢
Predict.fun34¢
Kalshi4.35x23¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
21.0%21¢23¢77¢79¢
PolymarketPolymarket
29.0%29¢30¢70¢71¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
33.8%34¢34¢66¢66¢
MC
María Corina Machado
2%
Kalshi3¢
Polymarket1¢
—
Kalshi34.48x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.8%1¢3¢97¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.0%0¢1¢99¢100¢
NH
No Head of State
single venue2%
—
Polymarket3¢
—
Polymarket37.04x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
2.3%2¢3¢97¢98¢
JR
Jorge Rodríguez
2%
Kalshi3¢
—
—
Kalshi40.00x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.5%1¢3¢98¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
—0¢—100¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarketPredict.funPredict.fun

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Delcy Rodríguez

Delcy Rodríguez is the acting president of Venezuela since January 2026. She served as vice president from 2018 to 2026 and as minister of petroleum from 2024 to 2026. Her current role is central to Venezuela's political future.

About María Corina Machado

María Corina Machado is the leader of the Venezuelan opposition party Vente Venezuela. She was awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for her efforts toward Venezuela's democratic transition. She is relevant to this prediction market as a prominent figure in Venezuela's political landscape.

About Diosdado Cabello Rondón

Diosdado Cabello is the current Minister of Interior, Justice, and Peace of Venezuela, appointed on August 27, 2024. He previously served as Vice President of Venezuela from 2002 to 2003 and as President of the National Assembly from 2012 to 2016. His current role places him at the forefront of Venezuela's internal security and justice system, making him a central figure in the country's political landscape.

About Edmundo González

Edmundo González Urrutia is the President-elect of Venezuela, recognized by the European Parliament in September 2024. He was the opposition candidate in the 2024 presidential election, which he contested against Nicolás Maduro. His recognition as President-elect is central to the prediction market regarding Venezuela's leadership at the end of 2026.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
ABCAxiosBloomberg NewsCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBCofficial organizational website where role is housedPoliticoReutersthe Associated PressThe New York TimesThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington PostUSAJobs.gov
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracleun.orgConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread12.8%
Platforms3
Candidates19
Leader

Nicolás Maduro

70.3% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If María Corina Machado officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

For the purposes of this contract, "officially holds" means any of the following: - María Corina Machado has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela - María Corina Machado is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela - María Corina Machado is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified) The following do **NOT** constitute "officially holding" the role: - Nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective - Appointed with an effective date *after* Dec 31, 2026 - Previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026 - Serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity - Named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed - Holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself

Resolution Oracles
ABCAxiosBloomberg NewsCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBCofficial organizational website where role is housedPoliticoReutersthe Associated PressThe New York TimesThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington PostUSAJobs.gov
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa. In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracleun.orgConsensus of Sources
Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the leadership odds in Venezuela?

Factors include the current political climate, economic conditions, and international relations. Additionally, public sentiment and potential opposition movements play a crucial role.

How do prediction markets determine the likelihood of a leader in Venezuela?

Prediction markets aggregate bets from participants who speculate on future events, reflecting their expectations based on available information. The odds fluctuate as new developments occur in the political landscape.

What is the significance of leadership in Venezuela by 2026?

Leadership in Venezuela by 2026 will impact the country's governance, economic recovery, and social stability. The choice of leader could also influence foreign relations and investment opportunities.

Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are Nicolás Maduro: 76.0¢ on Kalshi, 64.5¢ on Polymarket, 63.7¢ on Predict.fun; Delcy Rodríguez: 21.0¢ on Kalshi, 29.0¢ on Polymarket, 33.8¢ on Predict.fun; María Corina Machado: 2.8¢ on Kalshi, 1.0¢ on Polymarket; No Head of State: 2.3¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction Market Track Record

Who will Trump talk to in JanuaryWONPre-event: 99%Who will officially lead Venezuela on June 1?LOSTPre-event: 1%

Prediction Market Track Record

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Prediction Market Track Record

Who will officially lead Venezuela on June 1?LOSTPre-event: 1%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Who will Trump talk to in January

Resolved

2026-01-31

WONMaría Corina Machado
Pre-event: 99%

Who will officially lead Venezuela on June 1?

Resolved

2026-06-08

LOSTEdmundo González
Pre-event: 1%

Top 5 Most Searched People on Google in 2025

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTMaría Corina Machado
Pre-event: 1%

#1 Searched Person on Google this year?

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTMaría Corina Machado
Pre-event: 1%

TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTMaría Corina Machado
Pre-event: 3%

Who will attend the State of the Union?

Resolved

2026-02-24

LOSTMaría Corina Machado
Pre-event: 0%

Prediction Market Track Record

Who will officially lead Venezuela on June 1?LOSTPre-event: 1%