Traders give Donald Brodie about a 30.0% chance. Stefan Brodie follows at 18.0%, Larry Householder follows at 17.5%, and Keonne Rodriguez follows at 15.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.9 percentage points.
Traders give Donald Brodie about a 30.0% chance. Stefan Brodie follows at 18.0%, Larry Householder follows at 17.5%, and Keonne Rodriguez follows at 15.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.9 percentage points.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking who Trump will pardon before 2027. The outcome could influence public perception and political dynamics as the former president navigates his post-presidency legacy and potential future campaigns.
Brigadier General Robert B. Brodie is the Director of Expeditionary Warfare at OPNAV N95. He has served as Deputy Commanding General of the III Marine Expeditionary Force and Commanding General of the 3d Marine Expeditionary Brigade in Okinawa, Japan. His extensive military leadership makes him a potential candidate for a presidential pardon.
About Stefan Brodie
Stefan Brodie is a Miami-based attorney specializing in insurance-related litigation at Carlton Fields. He has been deeply involved in the Miami-Dade community for over four decades, serving on the board of directors and executive committee of the Greater Miami Jewish Federation. His extensive legal experience and community engagement make him a relevant candidate for this political prediction market.
About Larry Householder
Larry Householder is a former Republican Speaker of the Ohio House of Representatives, currently serving a 20-year federal prison sentence for orchestrating a $60 million bribery scheme. He was convicted in 2023 for leading a conspiracy to secure a $1 billion bailout for two nuclear power plants owned by FirstEnergy Corp. Householder's case is relevant to this prediction market as he has sought clemency from former President Donald Trump, potentially influencing future pardons.
About Keonne Rodriguez
Keonne Rodriguez is the former CEO and co-founder of Samourai Wallet, a cryptocurrency mixing service. In November 2025, he was sentenced to five years in prison and fined $250,000 for operating an unlicensed money transmitting business that laundered over $237 million in criminal proceeds. His involvement in the cryptocurrency industry and subsequent legal issues make him relevant to discussions about potential pardons by President Trump before 2027.
About John Kiriakou
John Kiriakou is a former CIA counterterrorism officer and whistleblower. He was the first U.S. official to publicly confirm the use of waterboarding by the CIA. He is relevant to this prediction market due to his previous lobbying efforts for a presidential pardon from Donald Trump.
About Ryan Salame
Ryan Salame is currently serving a 7.5-year federal prison sentence at FCI Cumberland in Maryland. He was previously the co-CEO of FTX Digital Markets, the Bahamas-based subsidiary of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX. Salame's involvement in FTX's collapse and his subsequent conviction are pertinent to this prediction market.
About Matt Borges
Matt Borges is a former chairman of the Ohio Republican Party. He was convicted in 2023 for his involvement in the House Bill 6 corruption scandal. His prior political leadership and legal issues make him a notable figure in discussions about potential presidential pardons.
About Matt Gaetz
Matt Gaetz is a former U.S. Representative for Florida's 1st Congressional District, having served from 2017 until his resignation in November 2024. He was nominated by President-elect Donald Trump to be Attorney General in November 2024 but withdrew his nomination and resigned from Congress shortly thereafter. Gaetz's prior role as a U.S. Representative and his nomination for Attorney General make him relevant to discussions about potential presidential pardons before 2027.
About Robin Smith
Robin Smith is a former Republican member of the Tennessee House of Representatives. She cooperated with federal prosecutors in a public corruption case, leading to the convictions of former House Speaker Glen Casada and his aide Cade Cothren. Smith is relevant to this prediction market due to her involvement in the case and her subsequent sentencing.
About Torence Hatch
Torence 'Boosie Badazz' Hatch is a rapper and actor. He was sentenced in January 2026 for federal gun possession charges. His legal history and public profile make him a notable candidate for a potential presidential pardon.
About Steve Bannon
Steve Bannon is a political strategist and media executive, currently hosting the 'War Room' podcast. He served as White House Chief Strategist from January to August 2017. Bannon's previous role as a senior advisor to President Trump makes him a notable figure in discussions about potential pardons.
About Tim Leissner
Tim Leissner is a former Goldman Sachs banker who was sentenced to two years in prison in May 2025 for his role in the 1MDB scandal. He previously served as the bank's Southeast Asia chairman and managing director. Leissner's involvement in the 1MDB scandal makes him a relevant candidate for a potential presidential pardon.
About Bill Hwang
Bill Hwang is a former investor and founder of Archegos Capital Management. He was convicted in July 2024 on multiple counts of securities fraud and market manipulation, leading to an 18-year prison sentence in November 2024. His financial activities and subsequent legal issues have been significant in discussions about financial regulations and market oversight.
About Braden John Karony
Braden John Karony is the former CEO of SafeMoon, a cryptocurrency project. He was convicted in May 2025 on charges of securities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering, leading to a 100-month federal prison sentence. His involvement in a significant fraud scheme makes him relevant to discussions about potential presidential pardons.
About Sean Combs
Sean Combs is currently serving a 50-month prison sentence at the Federal Correctional Institution, Fort Dix, for transportation for the purposes of prostitution. He was previously a prominent music producer and entrepreneur, known for founding Bad Boy Records and launching the careers of artists like The Notorious B.I.G. Combs is relevant to this prediction market due to his high-profile legal issues and potential for a presidential pardon.
About Julian Assange
Julian Assange is an Australian publisher and journalist, founder of WikiLeaks. He gained prominence in 2010 for publishing classified U.S. military documents. Assange is relevant to this prediction market due to his history of legal issues and potential for a presidential pardon.
About Jared Kushner
Jared Kushner is the founder and CEO of Affinity Partners, an investment firm based in Miami, Florida. He served as Senior Advisor to President Donald Trump from 2017 to 2021, focusing on Middle East peace initiatives. His prior experience in Middle East diplomacy makes him a relevant figure in discussions about potential presidential pardons.
About Donald Trump
Donald Trump is the 47th and current President of the United States, inaugurated on January 20, 2025. He previously served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021 and was re-elected in 2024. As president, he has the authority to grant pardons, making him central to this prediction market.
About Joe Exotic
Joe Exotic, real name Joseph Maldonado-Passage, is currently serving a 21-year federal prison sentence at the Federal Medical Center in Fort Worth, Texas, for a murder-for-hire plot against Carole Baskin. He gained fame as the star of the Netflix series 'Tiger King' and ran the Greater Wynnewood Exotic Animal Park in Oklahoma until 2018. His notoriety and legal troubles make him a notable candidate in discussions about potential presidential pardons.
About Kenneth Petty
Kenneth Petty is currently on probation and house arrest for failing to register as a sex offender in California. He was previously convicted of first-degree attempted rape in 1995. His legal history and association with Nicki Minaj may influence public perception regarding potential pardons.
About Bob Menendez
Bob Menendez is a former U.S. Senator from New Jersey, having served from 2006 until his resignation in August 2024. He was convicted in July 2024 on federal corruption charges, including bribery and acting as a foreign agent for Egypt and Qatar. His prior role as a U.S. Senator and his conviction on corruption charges are relevant to this prediction market.
About Edward Snowden
Edward Snowden is a former NSA contractor who leaked classified information about U.S. surveillance programs in 2013. He has been living in Russia since 2013 after fleeing Hong Kong, where he handed over tens of thousands of top-secret documents to journalists. He is relevant to this prediction market as a potential candidate for a presidential pardon before 2027.
About Elizabeth Holmes
Elizabeth Holmes is currently serving an 11-year prison sentence at a federal facility in Texas for defrauding investors in her company, Theranos. Before her conviction, she was the founder and CEO of Theranos, a health tech startup that claimed to revolutionize blood testing but was exposed for fraudulent practices. Her prior role is relevant to this prediction market as she is a potential candidate for a presidential pardon before 2027.
About Derek Chauvin
Derek Chauvin is a former Minneapolis police officer currently serving concurrent state and federal sentences for the murder of George Floyd. He was convicted of second-degree unintentional murder, third-degree murder, and second-degree manslaughter in 2021. His case remains a focal point in discussions about police reform and accountability.
About Ghislaine Maxwell
Ghislaine Maxwell is currently serving a 20-year prison sentence for sex trafficking minors in connection with Jeffrey Epstein. She was transferred to a minimum-security federal prison in Bryan, Texas, in August 2025 after cooperating with the Department of Justice. Maxwell's potential pardon by President Trump is relevant to this prediction market.
About Eric Adams
Eric Adams is the former Mayor of New York City, serving from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2025. Before his tenure as mayor, he was the Brooklyn Borough President from 2014 to 2021. His previous role as mayor makes him relevant to this prediction market regarding potential pardons by President Trump before 2027.
About Sam Bankman-Fried
Sam Bankman-Fried is a former cryptocurrency entrepreneur currently serving a 25-year prison sentence for fraud and related crimes. He founded the FTX cryptocurrency exchange, which collapsed in 2022 amid allegations of financial mismanagement. His prior conviction and imprisonment make him a candidate for potential presidential pardon consideration.
About Young Thug
Young Thug is an American rapper and founder of YSL Records. He was released from jail in October 2024 after pleading guilty to gang, drug, and gun charges. His legal history and prominence in the music industry make him a notable candidate for a potential presidential pardon.
About Martin Shkreli
Martin Shkreli is a strategic advisor at Q/C Technologies, Inc., a company specializing in quantum-class computing. He co-founded Turing Pharmaceuticals and gained notoriety for raising the price of Daraprim by 5,000%. His involvement in the pharmaceutical industry and subsequent legal issues make him a notable candidate for a potential presidential pardon.
About Diddy
Sean 'Diddy' Combs is a former American rapper and music producer. He was convicted in 2025 for transporting individuals for prostitution and sentenced to over four years in prison. His prior legal issues and the nature of his convictions make him an unlikely candidate for a presidential pardon.
About Roger Ver
Roger Ver is a cryptocurrency entrepreneur and early Bitcoin investor. He was arrested in Spain in April 2024 on charges of tax evasion related to Bitcoin sales. Ver is relevant to this prediction market due to his legal issues and potential for a presidential pardon.
About Nicolas Maduro
Nicolás Maduro is the former President of Venezuela, having served from 2013 until his capture by U.S. forces in January 2026. Prior to his presidency, he was the country's foreign minister and vice president. His tenure was marked by significant international controversy, including U.S. sanctions and legal actions against him.
About Antoine Massey
Antoine Massey is a former inmate from New Orleans. In May 2025, he escaped from the Orleans Justice Center and was recaptured in June 2025. In February 2026, he was sentenced to 60 years in prison for kidnapping and rape.
About Roger Stone
Roger Stone is a political strategist and radio host, currently hosting 'The Roger Stone Show' on WABC Radio. He previously served as a senior advisor to Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign. Stone is relevant to this prediction market due to his close association with Trump and his history of being pardoned by him.
About Elon Musk
Elon Musk is the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, and the founder of xAI. He previously served as a senior adviser to President Donald Trump in the Department of Government Efficiency. His involvement in the Trump administration and his significant public profile make him a notable figure in political discussions.
About Do Kwon
Do Kwon is a South Korean entrepreneur and former CEO of Terraform Labs. He co-founded Terraform Labs, which developed the TerraUSD stablecoin and Luna cryptocurrency, both of which collapsed in May 2022, leading to significant financial losses. He is relevant to this prediction market as he is a notable figure in the cryptocurrency industry who has faced legal challenges.
About Joseph Maldonado
Joseph Allen Maldonado-Passage, known as Joe Exotic, is currently serving a 21-year federal prison sentence for a murder-for-hire plot against Carole Baskin. He gained fame as the star of the Netflix series 'Tiger King' in 2020. His notoriety and legal troubles make him a notable candidate in discussions about potential presidential pardons.
About Daniel Penny
Daniel Penny is a deal partner at Andreessen Horowitz, a Silicon Valley venture capital firm. He was acquitted of criminal charges in the 2023 death of Jordan Neely on a New York City subway. His recent hiring by a prominent venture capital firm highlights his relevance in discussions about potential presidential pardons.
Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases
Market Rulebook: Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi
Primary Rule
If Roger Ver has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors influence Trump's potential pardons?
Factors include public opinion, ongoing legal challenges, and political alliances. Pardons could also be used to rally support among specific voter bases.
How do prediction markets determine odds for pardons?
Odds are influenced by market sentiment, news developments, and expert analysis. Traders buy and sell based on their expectations of who may receive a pardon.
What is the historical context of presidential pardons?
Presidential pardons have historically been used to address perceived injustices or to grant clemency. They can also serve as political tools to strengthen relationships with supporters.
Who will Trump pardon before 2027: what does this prediction market track?
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
Who will Trump pardon before 2027: what are the current odds?
The latest available prices are Donald Brodie: 30.0¢ on Polymarket; Stefan Brodie: 18.0¢ on Polymarket; Larry Householder: 17.5¢ on Kalshi; Keonne Rodriguez: 17.0¢ on Kalshi, 13.5¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
