Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Live prediction market odds for Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?. Compare prices across .
This market has closed on Nov 4, 2026. The chart below shows historical odds.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the potential passage of a billionaire one-time wealth tax in the California election of 2026.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the potential passage of a billionaire one-time wealth tax in the California election of 2026. This event could have far-reaching implications for state revenue and wealth distribution, influencing future tax policies and economic debates.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026 | No |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.
KalshiIf a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California passes, then the market resolves to Yes.
A referendum "passes" when it meets ALL of the following conditions: receives the minimum percentage of "Yes" or "For" votes required by the applicable constitution, law, or electoral rules (whether simple majority, supermajority, or other threshold), meets any minimum voter turnout requirements if applicable, and is certified as passed by the official electoral authority.
PolymarketA one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Predict.funA one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The billionaire one-time wealth tax is a proposed tax aimed at taxing the wealth of billionaires in California. It seeks to generate significant revenue for public services and address wealth inequality.
The proposal comes amid ongoing discussions about wealth inequality and the need for increased funding for public programs. Advocates argue that billionaires should contribute more to the state's economy.
Factors include public opinion on wealth taxes, campaign funding, and the political landscape leading up to the election. Polling data and endorsements from influential figures may also sway voter sentiment.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
