Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election…

Live Markets

3 platforms

OutcomeConsensus

Kalshi

Polymarket

Predict.fun

Best price

BO

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026

29%

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	30.0%	29¢	30¢	70¢	71¢
Polymarket	28.0%	28¢	29¢	71¢	72¢
Predict.fun	27.5%	25¢	30¢	70¢	75¢

Kalshi

Polymarket

Predict.fun

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California passes, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

A referendum "passes" when it meets ALL of the following conditions: receives the minimum percentage of "Yes" or "For" votes required by the applicable constitution, law, or electoral rules (whether simple majority, supermajority, or other threshold), meets any minimum voter turnout requirements if applicable, and is certified as passed by the official electoral authority.

Resolution Oracles

ABC News Axios BBC News Bloomberg News CBS News Fox News MSNBC NBC News Politico Reuters the Associated Press The New York Times The Wall Street Journal The Washington Post

Polymarket

Primary Rule

A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic Oracle6abc.comConsensus of Sources

Predict.fun

Primary Rule

A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the billionaire one-time wealth tax?

The billionaire one-time wealth tax is a proposed tax aimed at taxing the wealth of billionaires in California. It seeks to generate significant revenue for public services and address wealth inequality.

Why is this tax being proposed now?

The proposal comes amid ongoing discussions about wealth inequality and the need for increased funding for public programs. Advocates argue that billionaires should contribute more to the state's economy.

What factors could influence the outcome of this election?

Factors include public opinion on wealth taxes, campaign funding, and the political landscape leading up to the election. Polling data and endorsements from influential figures may also sway voter sentiment.

What does the Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026 prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026 odds?

The latest available prices are Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026: 30.0¢ on Kalshi, 28.0¢ on Polymarket, 27.5¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.