How low will Bitcoin get in 2026?
Live prediction market odds for How low will Bitcoin get in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Opinion and Predict.fun.
Listed Updated Expected to settle by
Traders give ↓ 65,000 (from Aug 24) about a 66.5% chance. ↓ 60,000 (from Jul 21) follows at 34.5%, ↓ 55,000 follows at 17.5%, and ↓ 50,000 follows at 9.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 16.8 percentage points.
KalshiPolymarketOpinionPredict.funBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Opinion and Polymarket and Predict.fun.
KalshiIf the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $60000.00 starting Jan 1, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.
OpinionPrice source: Binance Spot BTCUSDT one-minute OHLC candles on the Binance chart with “1m” selected. No other exchanges or pairs are considered. Time window: From 00:00 ET on February 1, 2026 through 23:59 ET on December 31, 2026, inclusive of both endpoints. Meaning of “hit”: For any “↑ X” outcome: it immediately resolves Yes if any 1-minute candle’s High ≥ X at any time within the window; otherwise No. For any “↓ X” outcome: it immediately resolves Yes if any 1-minute candle’s Low ≤ X at any time within the window; otherwise No.
PolymarketThis market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Predict.funThis market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Factors include regulatory changes, market demand, and technological advancements in blockchain. Economic conditions and investor sentiment also play crucial roles.
Prediction markets aggregate bets from participants on various outcomes, reflecting collective expectations. Prices fluctuate based on new information and market dynamics.
Bitcoin's price in 2026 could impact investor confidence and the broader cryptocurrency market. It may also influence regulatory discussions and adoption rates.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are ↓ 65,000 (from Aug 24): 66.5¢ on Polymarket, 83.0¢ on Predict.fun; ↓ 60,000 (from Jul 21): 34.5¢ on Polymarket, 49.6¢ on Predict.fun; ↓ 55,000: 19.5¢ on Kalshi, 15.5¢ on Polymarket, 16.5¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
Smart money is betting against ↑ 90,000
Buy No at 92¢Wallets with $10K+ lifetime profit · last 24h
Smart money is betting against ↑ 90,000
Buy No at 92¢Wallets with $10K+ lifetime profit · last 24h
Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.
Trader up $154K lifetime bought $2.4K of No at 61¢
53m agoWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?Trade on Kalshi Trader up $506K lifetime bought $3.6K of No at 91¢
1h agoWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Trade on Kalshi Trader up $506K lifetime bought $4.1K of No at 91¢
1h agoWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Trade on Kalshi Trader up $506K lifetime bought $1.4K of No at 91¢
1h agoWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Trade on Kalshi Trader up $506K lifetime sold $1.3K of Yes at 38¢
1h agoWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?Trade on Kalshi 
