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Traders give Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027 about a 9.0% chance. Compare prices from Polymarket and Opinion. The largest cross-platform price difference is 14.3 percentage points.
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
Live prediction market odds for Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Opinion.
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Traders give Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027 about a 9.0% chance. Compare prices from Polymarket and Opinion. The largest cross-platform price difference is 14.3 percentage points.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Opinion.
OpinionOn December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.
SHA-256 is a cryptographic hash function used in Bitcoin's proof-of-work consensus mechanism. It ensures the security and integrity of transactions on the Bitcoin network.
Replacing SHA-256 could enhance security, efficiency, or scalability of the Bitcoin network. Innovations in cryptography or changes in mining technology may drive this need.
Factors include advancements in cryptographic technology, regulatory changes, and shifts in the cryptocurrency market. Community consensus and developer decisions also play a critical role.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Polymarket, Opinion in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027: 1.9¢ on Polymarket, 16.1¢ on Opinion. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.