Traders give $100M about a 85.4% chance. $200M follows at 78.0%, $50M follows at 77.8%, and $300M follows at 71.2%. Compare prices from Polymarket and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 26.8 percentage points.
Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases
Market Rulebook: Surf FDV above one day after launch
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Predict.fun.
Predict.fun
Primary Rule
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Surf's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."
The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.
The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.
"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Created At: 2026-03-12T13:27:25.84484729Z
Frequently Asked Questions
What does FDV stand for in this context?
FDV stands for Fully Diluted Valuation, which estimates the total market cap of a cryptocurrency if all tokens were in circulation. It is a key metric for assessing the potential value of a crypto project.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on January 1, 2028, one day after the launch of Surf. The resolution is contingent on the FDV performance within that specific timeframe.
What factors influence the odds for this event?
Odds are influenced by early trading activity, market sentiment, and the overall performance of Surf post-launch. News and developments related to the cryptocurrency can also impact the market's expectations.
What does the Surf FDV above one day after launch prediction market track?
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
What are the latest Surf FDV above one day after launch odds?
The latest available prices are $100M: 72.0¢ on Polymarket, 98.8¢ on Predict.fun; $200M: 76.0¢ on Polymarket, 80.0¢ on Predict.fun; $50M: 70.0¢ on Polymarket, 85.7¢ on Predict.fun; $300M: 81.0¢ on Polymarket, 61.3¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.