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Live prediction market odds for How low will the S&P get this year?. Compare prices across Kalshi.

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How low will the S&P get this year?

2027-01-01

Best price · tap to trade

6,300 or below14¢7.14xKalshi6,200 or below10¢10.00xKalshi6,100 or below10¢10.00xKalshi
Compare all 5 outcomes across 1 venue

About This Market

Traders give 6,300 or below about a 12.8% chance. 6,200 or below follows at 9.7%, 6,100 or below follows at 8.2%, and 6,000 or below follows at 8.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi.

Traders give 6,300 or below about a 12.8% chance. 6,200 or below follows at 9.7%, 6,100 or below follows at 8.2%, and 6,000 or below follows at 8.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi.

Kalshi is tracking the event of how low the S&P 500 index will fall this year. Market participants are closely watching economic indicators, interest rates, and corporate earnings, which can significantly influence stock market performance.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

1 platform
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Best price
6O
6,300 or below
single venue13%
Kalshi14¢
Kalshi7.14x14¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
12.8%12¢14¢86¢88¢
6O
6,200 or below
single venue10%
Kalshi10¢
Kalshi10.10x10¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
9.7%8¢10¢90¢93¢
6O
6,100 or below
single venue8%
Kalshi10¢
Kalshi10.20x10¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
8.2%8¢10¢90¢92¢
6O
6,000 or below
single venue8%
Kalshi9¢
Kalshi11.36x9¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
8.0%7¢9¢91¢93¢
5O
5,900 or below
single venue7%
Kalshi7¢
Kalshi14.49x7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
6.5%6¢7¢93¢94¢
KalshiKalshi

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread0.0%
Platforms1
Candidates5
Leader

6,300 or below

12.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: How low will the S&P get this year?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending on Jan 1, 2027 is below 6300.01, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the S&P 500's performance?

Economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation rates, and unemployment figures can impact the S&P 500. Additionally, corporate earnings reports and changes in interest rates play crucial roles in shaping market sentiment.

How does market sentiment affect the S&P 500?

Market sentiment, driven by investor perceptions and news events, can lead to volatility in the S&P 500. Positive sentiment may push prices higher, while negative sentiment can lead to declines.

What is the significance of predicting S&P 500 lows?

Predicting the lows of the S&P 500 helps investors gauge market trends and make informed decisions. Understanding potential downturns can aid in risk management and investment strategies.

How low will the S&P get this year: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

How low will the S&P get this year: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are 6,300 or below: 12.8¢ on Kalshi; 6,200 or below: 9.7¢ on Kalshi; 6,100 or below: 8.2¢ on Kalshi; 6,000 or below: 8.0¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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