Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
Live prediction market odds for Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Listed Updated Expected to settle by
Traders give Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? [Yes] about a 10.0% chance. Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? [Yes] follows at 6.8%, Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? [Yes] follows at 4.0%, and Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? [Yes] follows at 3.4%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Meta has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
The top-ranked AI model is determined by rankings published by industry analysts. These rankings are based on various performance metrics and evaluations of AI models.
This market resolves on January 2, 2027. The outcome will be based on the published rankings at that time.
Advancements in AI technology can lead to shifts in market odds as companies announce new developments or improvements. These changes are closely monitored by traders on the platforms.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? [Yes]: 11.0¢ on Kalshi, 9.0¢ on Polymarket; Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? [Yes]: 5.5¢ on Kalshi, 8.0¢ on Polymarket; Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? [Yes]: 3.5¢ on Kalshi, 4.5¢ on Polymarket; Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? [Yes]: 3.5¢ on Kalshi, 3.3¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
Resolved Nov 12
Final odds
