How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
Live prediction market odds for How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.
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Compare all 6 outcomes across 3 venuesTraders give 2 (50 Bps) about a 88.5% chance. 3 (75 Bps) follows at 7.7%, 1 (25 Bps) follows at 2.6%, and 4 (100 Bps) follows at 0.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.9 percentage points.
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Predict.funKalshiPolymarketPredict.funBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Predict.fun.
KalshiIf the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes. Please note the following definition of a "rate hike": A single ‘hike’ is considered an increase in the upper bound by at least 1 basis point and up to and including 25 basis points. An increase of the upper bound of the target range 26-50 basis points hike is considered two hikes. An increase of the upper bound of the target range 51-75 basis points is considered three hikes.
Predict.funThis market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
The market resolves on December 31, 2026, based on the total number of rate hikes announced by the Federal Reserve.
Odds are influenced by economic data releases, inflation trends, and Federal Reserve communications regarding monetary policy.
Outcomes are categorized based on the total number of hikes, with specific thresholds such as 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5+ hikes by the end of 2026.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are 2 (50 Bps): 88.5¢ on Kalshi, 88.5¢ on Polymarket, 89.5¢ on Predict.fun; 3 (75 Bps): 7.5¢ on Kalshi, 7.8¢ on Polymarket, 7.5¢ on Predict.fun; 1 (25 Bps): 3.5¢ on Kalshi, 1.8¢ on Polymarket, 3.0¢ on Predict.fun; 4 (100 Bps): 0.1¢ on Polymarket, 2.0¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.
Trader up $358K lifetime bought $3.7K of No at 96¢
1d agoWill 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Trade on Kalshi Trader up $358K lifetime sold $1.9K of No at 96¢
1d agoWill 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Trade on Kalshi Trader up $29.5K lifetime bought $1.3K of Yes at 87¢
3d agoWill 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Trade on Kalshi Trader up $371K lifetime bought $2.4K of No at 89¢
3d agoWill 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Trade on Kalshi Trader up $362K lifetime bought $4.8K of No at 86¢
3d agoWill 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Trade on Kalshi 
