Will the Fed Hike in December? Waller Floats 50bp, Odds Hit 87%

The Fed looks likely to hike in December 2026. In the "How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?" market, the "2 (50 Bps)" outcome stands at 87%, up from 76% three days earlier. Governor Christopher Waller said in London on Nov 10 that he is "leaning toward" a December increase even if October inflation comes in softer than expected. He added that a 50 basis point move "should be considered" if core CPI runs 0.3% or higher, according to CNBC. Reuters reported that he plans to support at least a quarter-point hike.

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Will the Fed Hike in December 2026? "2 (50 Bps)" Stands at 87%

The "2 (50 Bps)" outcome rose from 76% to 87% over three days, a gain of roughly 11 percentage points, as of Nov 10. Kalshi priced it at 88% and Polymarket at 86%. The sources do not tie the full move to Waller's Nov 10 remarks specifically.

Live market odds

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How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi, Polymarket and Predict.fun.

2 (50 Bps)In this story

89%

KalshiBest price1.12x89¢Polymarket1.12x89¢Predict.fun1.09x92¢

3 (75 Bps)

7%

KalshiBest price12.50x8¢Polymarket11.76x8.5¢Predict.fun11.11x9¢

1 (25 Bps)

3%

PolymarketBest price45.45x2.2¢Kalshi25.00x4¢Predict.fun20.00x5¢

5+ (125+ Bps)

1%

PolymarketBest price1000.00x0.1¢Predict.fun50.00x2¢

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Waller framed the hike as a credibility test. "Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take," he said (CNBC). He added that "ensuring that the promised hikes are implemented in a reasonable period of time" matters more than precise timing. His remarks lifted the U.S. dollar index to about 101.7, per XTB.

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Why 87% for "2 (50 Bps)" May Overstate Waller's Tail Risk

Rate futures tell a narrower story. CME FedWatch, as reported in Nov 10 coverage including CoinDesk, priced better than an 80% chance of a 25bp December hike and near-zero odds of a 50bp move.

Waller's half-point language was conditional on a core CPI print of 0.3% or higher, not a commitment.

The two instruments measure different things. Futures price a single meeting; the contract counts total 2026 hikes, so "2 (50 Bps)" could resolve through a 50bp December move or through two separate quarter-point hikes this year. The sources do not establish whether traders are treating Waller's 50bp scenario as a base case. If they are, the contract sits well above what futures imply for that path, a possible mismatch rather than a confirmed mispricing.

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October CPI Is the Next Test for the Waller Scenario

The October CPI report, due Nov 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET, carried a consensus of +0.3% headline and +0.2% core. A core reading at or above 0.3% would meet Waller's threshold and strengthen the 50bp case. A cooler print would leave a 25bp December hike as the central case, consistent with futures, and put pressure on the "2 (50 Bps)" price. Traders can follow the full outcome ladder on the Fed rate hikes in 2026 market page.

The final test comes at the Dec. 8-9 FOMC meeting, where the committee's choice between 25bp and 50bp will settle which reading of Waller's speech the market got right.