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Live prediction market odds for How many House seats will Democrats win in South Carolina?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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How many House seats will Democrats win in South Carolina?

Listed Aug 12, 2026 · Updated Oct 23, 2026 · Expected to settle by May 13, 2027

Best price · tap to trade

166¢1.52xKalshi229¢3.45xKalshiAbove 212¢8.33xKalshi
Compare all 5 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give 1 about a 63.5% chance. 2 follows at 28.0%, Above 2 follows at 7.5%, and 3+ follows at 5.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 6.0 percentage points.

Traders give 1 about a 63.5% chance. 2 follows at 28.0%, Above 2 follows at 7.5%, and 3+ follows at 5.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 6.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking how many House seats Democrats will win in South Carolina during the 2026 elections. This event is crucial as it could impact the balance of power in Congress and reflect broader national trends in voter sentiment.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
1
1
64%
Kalshi66¢
Polymarket64¢
Kalshi1.52x66¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
64.5%63¢66¢34¢37¢
PolymarketPolymarket
62.5%61¢64¢36¢39¢
2
2
28%
Kalshi29¢
Polymarket32¢
Kalshi3.45x29¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
25.0%21¢29¢71¢79¢
PolymarketPolymarket
31.0%30¢32¢68¢70¢
A2
Above 2
single venue8%
Kalshi12¢
—
Kalshi8.33x12¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
7.5%3¢12¢88¢97¢
3
3+
single venue6%
—
Polymarket9¢
Polymarket10.99x9¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
5.7%2¢9¢91¢98¢
0
0
single venue0.45%
—
Polymarket0.8¢
Polymarket125.00x0.8¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
0.5%0.1¢0.8¢99.2¢99.9¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread6.0%
Platforms2
Candidates5
Volume$51K
Leader

1

63.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: How many House seats will Democrats win in South Carolina?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Democrats win 0 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in South Carolina, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either: The time for legal challenges has expired Challenges have been resolved The member has taken their seat Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged. If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price. Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of the legislature.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the prediction for House seats in South Carolina?

Key factors include voter turnout, demographic shifts, and local political dynamics. Historical voting patterns and candidate appeal also play significant roles.

How do prediction markets determine the odds for this event?

Odds are based on real-time betting activity and the collective insights of market participants. Changes in polling data and campaign developments can lead to fluctuations in these odds.

What is at stake for Democrats in this election?

Winning House seats in South Carolina could enhance Democratic influence in Congress. It also serves as a barometer for the party's strength in traditionally conservative regions.

How many House seats will Democrats win in South Carolina: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

How many House seats will Democrats win in South Carolina: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are 1: 64.5¢ on Kalshi, 62.5¢ on Polymarket; 2: 25.0¢ on Kalshi, 31.0¢ on Polymarket; Above 2: 7.5¢ on Kalshi; 3+: 5.7¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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SC Senate Blocks Redistricting, Cutting Democrats' Path to House PickupThe SC Senate killed a congressional map redraw, locking in GOP-drawn lines for 2026. The '1 seat' outcome on Kalshi and Polymarket fell 8 percentage points in three days.Oct 8, 2026SC Senate Blocks Redistricting, Lifting Democratic 2-Seat Odds to 28%The SC Senate rejected a Trump-backed map redraw on Sept. 22, locking in Clyburn's district and opening a credible path to a second Democratic seat.Sep 24, 2026Democrats' SC House Odds Drop 10 Points Despite Full SlatePrediction markets cut Democrats' chances of winning at least one SC House seat from 74% to 64% in three days, even as the party fields candidates in all seven districts.Sep 17, 2026SC Democrats Hit 77% to Win a House Seat After Graham Senate WinThe '1 Democratic seat' contract jumped 25 points in three days. Norman's loss exposed GOP coalition fractures that now reach the House map.Aug 29, 2026