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Live prediction market odds for KS-01 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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KS-01 House winner?

Listed Sep 18, 2026 · Updated Oct 20, 2026 · Expected to settle by Jan 4, 2027

2026 Midterms hubNew

Every 2026 House seat beside the Senate and governor races, priced across every venue.
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Best price · tap to trade

Tracey Mann (R)98¢1.02xKalshiLauren Reinhold (D)3¢33.33xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Tracey Mann (R) about a 96.9% chance. Lauren Reinhold (D) follows at 2.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.7 percentage points.

Traders give Tracey Mann (R) about a 96.9% chance. Lauren Reinhold (D) follows at 2.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.7 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the KS-01 House election. The election will be resolved based on the official results announced after the polls close on November 3, 2026, and odds will fluctuate with candidate campaigning and polling data leading up to that date.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
TM
Tracey Mann (R)
97%
Kalshi98¢
Polymarket US99¢
Polymarket98¢
Kalshi1.02x98¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
95.8%94¢98¢2¢6¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
98.5%98¢99¢1¢2¢
PolymarketPolymarket
96.4%95¢98¢2¢5¢
LR
Lauren Reinhold (D)
2%
Kalshi5¢
Polymarket US3¢
Polymarket2¢
Polymarket US33.33x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
3.1%1¢5¢95¢99¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
2.0%1¢3¢97¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.0%0.5¢2¢99¢99.5¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Tracey Mann (R)

Tracey Mann is the current U.S. Representative for Kansas's 1st congressional district, serving since January 2021. Before his congressional tenure, he was the Lieutenant Governor of Kansas from 2018 to 2019. His extensive experience in state politics and agriculture policy makes him a significant figure in Kansas's political landscape.

About Lauren Reinhold (D)

Lauren Reinhold is a Democratic candidate for Kansas's 1st Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House election. She is a former federal employee who resigned after her position was eliminated by the Department of Government Efficiency. Reinhold's campaign focuses on rural economic recovery, rebuilding rural healthcare, supporting agriculture, strengthening unions and worker rights, and protecting Social Security.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.7%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Volume$51K
Leader

Tracey Mann (R)

96.9% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: KS-01 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for KS-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the KS-01 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the resolution date for the KS-01 House winner market?

The market resolves on November 3, 2026, when the official election results are announced.

How do odds change for the KS-01 House election?

Odds fluctuate based on candidate campaigning, polling data, and voter sentiment leading up to the election date.

What platforms are tracking the KS-01 House winner?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking the KS-01 House election winner.

What does the KS-01 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest KS-01 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Tracey Mann (R): 95.8¢ on Kalshi, 96.4¢ on Polymarket, 98.5¢ on Polymarket US; Lauren Reinhold (D): 3.1¢ on Kalshi, 1.0¢ on Polymarket, 2.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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