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Live prediction market odds for Arizona Governor Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

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Arizona Governor Election Winner

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Katie Hobbs (D)87¢1.15xPolymarket USAndy Biggs (R)12¢8.33xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Katie Hobbs (D) about a 88.2% chance. Andy Biggs (R) follows at 11.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.

Traders give Katie Hobbs (D) about a 88.2% chance. Andy Biggs (R) follows at 11.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Arizona Governor Election Winner for the upcoming election on November 3, 2026. This election is pivotal as it could influence state policies and party control in a key battleground state, impacting national political dynamics.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
KH
Katie Hobbs (D)
88%
Kalshi89¢
Polymarket US87¢
Polymarket89¢
Polymarket US1.15x87¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
89.0%88¢89¢11¢12¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
87.0%86¢87¢13¢14¢
PolymarketPolymarket
88.5%88¢89¢11¢12¢
AB
Andy Biggs (R)
12%
Kalshi12¢
—
Polymarket11¢
Kalshi8.33x12¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
12.0%11¢12¢88¢89¢
PolymarketPolymarket
11.0%10¢11¢89¢90¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Katie Hobbs (D)

Katie Hobbs is the current governor of Arizona, serving since January 2, 2023. She previously held the position of Secretary of State of Arizona from 2019 to 2023. As governor, she has been involved in addressing various state issues, including overseeing investigations into alleged pay-to-play schemes.

About Andy Biggs (R)

Andy Biggs is the U.S. Representative for Arizona's 5th congressional district. He served as President of the Arizona Senate from 2013 to 2017. He is a candidate for the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
US State Governments
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.0%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Katie Hobbs (D)

88.2% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Arizona Governor Election Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Arizona pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
US State Governments
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

If the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 election for Governor of Arizona, this market will settle to Yes. Outcome verified from relevant government authorities.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Arizona Governor Election?

Polling data, candidate popularity, and campaign funding are key factors that influence market odds. Additionally, voter turnout and major state issues can sway public opinion leading up to the election.

How do prediction markets work for elections like this one?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective sentiment and probabilities of various candidates winning.

Why is the Arizona Governor Election considered a battleground?

Arizona has historically been a swing state, with both parties vying for control in recent elections. The outcome can significantly affect legislative agendas and national election strategies.

What does the Arizona Governor Election Winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Arizona Governor Election Winner odds?

The latest available prices are Katie Hobbs (D): 89.0¢ on Kalshi, 88.5¢ on Polymarket, 87.0¢ on Polymarket US; Andy Biggs (R): 12.0¢ on Kalshi, 11.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Democratic Party Hits 79% in Arizona Governor Race Before Hobbs DeclaresA 28-point surge in 3 days prices in a Hobbs re-run 10 days before the July 21 primary, defying cautious conventional wisdom from late 2025.Jul 11, 2026

Prediction Market Track Record

Who will vote Yes to releasing Epstein files?WONPre-event: 0%Arizona Republican Governor nominee?WONPre-event: 99%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Who will vote Yes to releasing Epstein files?

Resolved
WONAndy Biggs (R)
Pre-event: 0%

Arizona Republican Governor nominee?

Resolved

2026-07-21

WONAndy Biggs (R)
Pre-event: 99%