Traders give $300M about a 21.1% chance. $20M follows at 18.0%, $40M follows at 14.6%, and $10M follows at 14.3%. Compare prices from Polymarket and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 27.2 percentage points.
Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases
Market Rulebook: MagicBlock FDV above one day after launch
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Predict.fun.
Predict.fun
Primary Rule
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of MagicBlock's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."
The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.
The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.
"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If MagicBlock (https://x.com/magicblock) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Created At: 2026-03-02T13:40:24.417836219Z
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the resolution date for this market?
The market resolves on January 1, 2027, one day after the launch of MagicBlock.
What determines the outcome of this market?
The outcome is determined by the fully diluted valuation of MagicBlock reported at the end of its first trading day.
Which platforms are tracking this event?
Polymarket and PredictIt are the platforms monitoring this event and providing real-time odds.
What does the MagicBlock FDV above one day after launch prediction market track?
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
What are the latest MagicBlock FDV above one day after launch odds?
The latest available prices are $300M: 7.5¢ on Polymarket, 34.7¢ on Predict.fun; $20M: 17.0¢ on Polymarket, 19.0¢ on Predict.fun; $40M: 6.5¢ on Polymarket, 22.6¢ on Predict.fun; $10M: 9.6¢ on Polymarket, 19.0¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.