Traders give Carlos Alcaraz about a 98.0% chance. Ben Shelton follows at 96.8%, Frances Tiafoe follows at 87.5%, and Flavio Cobolli follows at 86.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 9.5 percentage points.
Traders give Carlos Alcaraz about a 98.0% chance. Ben Shelton follows at 96.8%, Frances Tiafoe follows at 87.5%, and Flavio Cobolli follows at 86.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 9.5 percentage points.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the qualifiers for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals, set to take place on November 15, 2026. The market resolves based on the players who qualify for the finals through their performance in the ATP Tour events leading up to the tournament date.
Frances Tiafoe is an American professional tennis player currently ranked No. 8 in the ATP singles rankings. He achieved his career-high ranking of No. 8 on September 14, 2026. Tiafoe has won five ATP titles, including the 2026 Terra Wortmann Open and the 2023 Boss Open.
About Arthur Fils
Arthur Fils is a French professional tennis player currently ranked No. 11 in the ATP singles rankings. He achieved his career-high ranking of No. 11 on August 24, 2026, after winning the Cincinnati Masters 1000 title. Fils has won five ATP Tour singles titles and is the current No. 1 singles player from France.
About Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev is a Russian professional tennis player currently ranked No. 6 in the ATP singles rankings. He achieved a career-high world No. 1 ranking on February 28, 2022. Medvedev has won 23 ATP Tour-level singles titles, including the 2021 US Open and the 2020 ATP Finals.
About Taylor Fritz
Taylor Fritz is an American professional tennis player currently ranked No. 10 in the ATP singles rankings. He achieved a career-high ranking of No. 4 on November 18, 2024. Fritz has won 10 ATP singles titles and reached the final of the 2024 US Open, where he was runner-up to Jannik Sinner.
About Felix Auger-Aliassime
Félix Auger-Aliassime is a Canadian professional tennis player currently ranked No. 5 in ATP singles. He achieved a career-high ranking of No. 4 in June 2026. As Canada's top-ranked singles player, he has secured nine ATP titles and has been a consistent performer on the ATP Tour.
About Alex de Minaur
Alex de Minaur is an Australian professional tennis player currently ranked No. 9 in ATP singles. He achieved a career-high ranking of No. 6 on July 15, 2024. De Minaur has won 11 ATP Tour singles titles and is the current No. 1 singles player from Australia.
About Jakub Mensik
Jakub Menšík is a Czech professional tennis player currently ranked No. 25 in ATP singles. He won his first ATP Tour title at the 2025 Miami Open, defeating Novak Djokovic in the final. As the No. 2 Czech player in men's singles, he represents Czechia in the Davis Cup.
About Tommy Paul
Tommy Paul is an American professional tennis player currently ranked No. 18 in ATP singles. He achieved a career-high ranking of No. 8 in June 2025. Paul has won five ATP Tour singles titles and reached a major semifinal at the 2023 Australian Open.
About Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic is a Serbian professional tennis player currently ranked No. 12 in singles. He holds the record for the most weeks at world No. 1, totaling 428 weeks. Djokovic's exceptional career includes 24 Grand Slam singles titles, the highest in men's tennis history.
About Andrey Rublev
Andrey Rublev is a Russian professional tennis player currently ranked No. 25 in ATP singles. He has won 17 ATP Tour singles titles, including two Masters 1000 events in Monte-Carlo and Madrid. His aggressive playing style and powerful groundstrokes have established him as a formidable competitor on the ATP Tour.
About Stefanos Tsitsipas
Stefanos Tsitsipas is a Greek professional tennis player currently ranked No. 44 in ATP singles. He achieved a career-high ranking of No. 3 in August 2021 and has won 12 ATP Tour singles titles, including the 2019 ATP Finals. Tsitsipas is recognized for his versatile playing style and has been a consistent presence in the ATP Top 10 rankings.
About Francisco Cerundolo
Francisco Cerúndolo is an Argentine professional tennis player currently ranked No. 22 in ATP singles. He achieved his career-high ranking of No. 18 on May 5, 2025. Cerúndolo has won four ATP Tour singles titles and represents Argentina in the Davis Cup.
About Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo Musetti is an Italian professional tennis player currently ranked No. 24 in ATP singles. He achieved a career-high ranking of No. 5 in January 2026. Musetti has won two ATP Tour singles titles and reached the semifinals at both the 2024 Wimbledon Championships and the 2025 French Open.
About Alexander Bublik
Alexander Bublik is a professional tennis player from Kazakhstan, currently ranked No. 21 in ATP singles as of September 21, 2026. He achieved a career-high ranking of No. 10 on January 12, 2026, becoming the first Kazakhstani man to reach the ATP top 10. Bublik has won nine ATP Tour singles titles, including the 2026 Hong Kong Open, and is the current Kazakhstani No. 1 singles player.
About Casper Ruud
Casper Ruud is a Norwegian professional tennis player currently ranked No. 17 in the ATP singles rankings. He achieved a career-high ranking of No. 2 in September 2022 and has won 14 ATP Tour singles titles. Renowned for his clay-court prowess, Ruud has reached three Grand Slam finals, including the 2022 French Open, 2022 US Open, and 2023 French Open.
Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases
Market Rulebook: Nitto ATP Singles Finals: Qualifiers
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi
Primary Rule
If Carlos Alcaraz qualifies for the 2026 Nitto ATP Singles Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
If player qualifies but does not compete, the market resolves to Yes.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified player qualifies for the singles main draw of the 2026 Nitto ATP Finals, currently scheduled for November 15, 2026 to November 22, 2026, in Turin, Italy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A player is considered to have "qualified" if they are named to one of the eight (8) singles main-draw spots according to the official ATP source.
If a player qualifies but withdraws before competing, they will still be considered to have "qualified" and this market will resolve "Yes."
If the tournament is postponed beyond December 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the eight-player singles field has not been officially determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the ATP Tour (atptour.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines the qualifiers for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals?
Qualifiers are determined by players' rankings and performance in ATP Tour events throughout the season. The top players based on their accumulated points will secure a spot in the finals.
When does the Nitto ATP Singles Finals take place?
The Nitto ATP Singles Finals is scheduled for November 15, 2026. This prestigious event features the top-ranked singles players from the ATP Tour.
How do odds change for the qualifiers leading up to the finals?
Odds fluctuate based on players' performances in the lead-up tournaments, including wins, losses, and injuries. Market participants react to these developments, impacting the likelihood of each player's qualification.
What does the Nitto ATP Singles Finals: Qualifiers prediction market track?
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
What are the latest Nitto ATP Singles Finals: Qualifiers odds?
The latest available prices are Carlos Alcaraz: 98.0¢ on Kalshi, 98.0¢ on Polymarket; Ben Shelton: 97.0¢ on Kalshi, 96.5¢ on Polymarket; Frances Tiafoe: 84.0¢ on Kalshi, 91.0¢ on Polymarket; Flavio Cobolli: 86.9¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
