Traders give $100M about a 24.2% chance. $50M follows at 12.4%, $300M follows at 11.8%, and $200M follows at 10.3%. Compare prices from Polymarket and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 33.5 percentage points.
Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases
Market Rulebook: Noble FDV above one day after launch
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Predict.fun.
Predict.fun
Primary Rule
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Noble's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."
Only an official token launched by Noble will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.
The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch.
The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.
"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Noble (https://x.com/noble_xyz) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Created At: 2026-03-26T15:50:44.459743541Z
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Noble's FDV?
Noble's fully diluted valuation (FDV) represents the total market value of all tokens if all are issued. It is a key metric for evaluating the project's potential market capitalization.
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves on January 1, 2028, at the end of the first day of trading. The resolution depends on whether Noble's FDV exceeds a specific threshold.
How is the FDV calculated?
FDV is calculated by multiplying the total supply of tokens by the current market price per token. This gives a comprehensive view of the project's valuation in the market.
What does the Noble FDV above one day after launch prediction market track?
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
What are the latest Noble FDV above one day after launch odds?
The latest available prices are $100M: 41.0¢ on Polymarket, 7.5¢ on Predict.fun; $50M: 16.0¢ on Polymarket, 8.9¢ on Predict.fun; $300M: 14.0¢ on Polymarket, 9.6¢ on Predict.fun; $200M: 9.5¢ on Polymarket, 11.1¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.