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Live prediction market odds for Oscar nominations for Best Picture?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

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Kalshi / Polymarket

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Oscar nominations for Best Picture?

2027-01-21

Best price · tap to trade

The Odyssey99¢1.01xKalshiThe Black Ball95¢1.05xKalshiWild Horse Nine92¢1.09xKalshi
Compare all 37 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give The Odyssey about a 97.0% chance. The Black Ball follows at 93.0%, Wild Horse Nine follows at 89.0%, and Project Hail Mary follows at 80.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 7.3 percentage points.

Traders give The Odyssey about a 97.0% chance. The Black Ball follows at 93.0%, Wild Horse Nine follows at 89.0%, and Project Hail Mary follows at 80.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 7.3 percentage points.

Oscar nominations for Best Picture are being tracked on Kalshi. This event is pivotal as it influences industry recognition and potential awards, impacting filmmakers, studios, and audiences alike.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
TO
The Odyssey
single venue97%
Kalshi99¢
—
Kalshi1.01x99¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
97.0%97¢99¢1¢3¢
TB
The Black Ball
single venue93%
Kalshi95¢
—
Kalshi1.05x95¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
93.0%93¢95¢5¢7¢
WH
Wild Horse NineARB
89%
Kalshi92¢
Polymarket88¢
Kalshi1.09x92¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
90.0%90¢92¢8¢10¢
PolymarketPolymarket
88.0%86¢88¢12¢14¢
PH
Project Hail Mary
single venue80%
Kalshi81¢
—
Kalshi1.23x81¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
80.0%80¢81¢19¢20¢
DP
Dune: Part Three
single venue76%
Kalshi77¢
—
Kalshi1.30x77¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
75.5%74¢77¢23¢26¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread7.3%
Platforms2
Candidates37
Leader

The Odyssey

97.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Oscar nominations for Best Picture?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If The Odyssey has been nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

When will the Oscar nominations for Best Picture be announced?

The nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, 2027. This date is crucial for filmmakers and studios as it sets the stage for the awards ceremony.

What factors influence the odds for Best Picture nominations?

Odds are influenced by critical reviews, box office performance, and industry buzz leading up to the nominations. Additionally, film festivals and award shows can significantly impact perceptions and expectations.

How do prediction markets work for events like the Oscars?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of outcomes, such as Oscar nominations. Prices reflect collective sentiment and can change rapidly as new information becomes available.

What does the Oscar nominations for Best Picture prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Oscar nominations for Best Picture odds?

The latest available prices are The Odyssey: 97.0¢ on Kalshi; The Black Ball: 93.0¢ on Kalshi; Wild Horse Nine: 90.0¢ on Kalshi, 88.0¢ on Polymarket; Project Hail Mary: 80.0¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

The Social Reckoning's Best Picture Odds Fall 12 Points in 3 DaysNo single catalyst explains the slide from 31% to 19%. The drop mirrors a broader repricing as new 2027 contenders absorb market share.Sep 8, 2026The Social Reckoning Drops 8 Points With Zero Bad ReviewsSorkin's unreleased film falls from 38% to 30% for a Best Picture nomination as locked-in frontrunners claim slots before a single screening.Sep 6, 2026Wild Horse Nine Jumps to 84% for Best Picture Nod After Venice PremiereMcDonagh's CIA thriller gained 10pp in three days on festival buzz, with only 3pp separating it from fourth place and no published reviews yet.Sep 3, 2026Fjord Hits 68% for Best Picture With No Reviews or ScreeningsA 9-point surge in 72 hours on trailer momentum alone. No critic screenings, no festival date, no precursor results have been announced.Sep 1, 2026