Which Films Will Be Nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars? Latest News

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce nominations for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards on Thursday, Jan. 21, 2027, and the market resolves then. Contenders include Project Hail Mary, the Amazon MGM adaptation submitted in 15 categories, and Club Kid, Jordan Firstman's A24 debut opening in U.S. theaters on Nov. 6, 2026. Newer names such as You Can See Everything, Artificial and Wildwood are also pushing into the field.

The key dynamic is that this is a nominations market, not a winner market. Each contract pays YES if a film appears among the Best Picture nominees, so many films can resolve YES at once and prices do not need to sum to 100%. Nothing is decided before the announcement. Reviews, box office and precursor awards in the meantime can shift prices, but prices are market-implied probabilities, not polls or Academy decisions.

Oct. 28, 2026: Project Hail Mary's Best Picture Nomination Odds Slip to 71%

Will Project Hail Mary Be Nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

Project Hail Mary is a strong Best Picture nomination contender, but nothing is settled because the Academy has not announced nominations for the 99th Academy Awards. Amazon MGM has submitted Phil Lord and Christopher Miller's adaptation of Andy Weir's novel in 15 categories. The film has grossed roughly $350 million domestically and $340 million internationally, about $690 million worldwide. On Kalshi, its market-implied probability of a Best Picture nomination eased from 76% to 71%, a drop of 5 percentage points.

That 71% figure, recorded Oct. 28, 2026, is a trading price. It is not a poll or an expert forecast.

Why Project Hail Mary's Best Picture Odds Slipped From 76% to 71%

Two pieces of context frame the film's position. The first is competition. The Best Picture race has grown crowded, and Gold Derby tracked You Can See Everything, Artificial and Wildwood pushing into its top 20. UK bookmakers cut You Can See Everything from 50/1 to 9/4 for Best Picture, OLBG reported. The Los Angeles Times published its own Best Picture predictions on Oct. 26.

The second is Ryan Gosling, who stars and is also among the credited producers. Gosling had earlier withdrawn from the American Cinematheque Awards gala, which was postponed to 2027 because of scheduling. He later appeared at a Los Angeles voter meet-and-greet.

The film's strengths are broad. Amazon MGM's 15-category slate runs from Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay (Drew Goddard) to Sound, Score and Visual Effects. Daniel Pemberton's score will get a one-night concert with a 70-piece orchestra at the Dolby Theatre. Gold Derby projects contention in Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Sound, Score, Visual Effects and Best Actor. Comparisons to The Martian, which earned seven nominations, follow the film. Gosling's Best Actor bid and James Ortiz's Supporting Actor push trade as separate markets.

When Will Project Hail Mary's Oscar Nomination Status Be Settled?

The contract resolves on the Academy's official nominations announcement for the 99th Academy Awards. It pays YES only if Project Hail Mary appears among the Best Picture nominees. The Academy lists the nominations announcement for Thursday, Jan. 21, 2027, according to its official key dates. For reference, the previous ceremony's nominations came on Jan. 22, 2026.

The price will keep moving as campaign events and precursor awards arrive. Readers can follow every contender on the Oscar Best Picture nominations market page. At 71%, the film is a strong favorite to be nominated, not a certainty.

Earlier Updates

Oct. 21, 2026: Club Kid's Best Picture Odds Slip to 24% Amid Screenplay Talk

Club Kid28% → 24%▼4

On Oct. 21, 2026, no new development in Club Kid's awards campaign was confirmed. Next Best Picture identified Best Original Screenplay as the film's most realistic category, and Variety and 10NEWS flagged Colleen Camp as a possible supporting actress contender while expecting a crowded field. The film opens in U.S. theaters on November 6, 2026.

Oct. 19, 2026: Club Kid's Best Picture Odds Fall to 26% as Pundits Favor Screenplay

Club Kid38% → 26%▼12

On Oct. 19, 2026, the market for a Best Picture nomination for Club Kid had fallen over three days. Pundits see Best Original Screenplay as the film's more realistic Oscar path, and A24 releases the film in U.S. theaters on November 6, 2026.

Oct. 15, 2026: Josephine's Best Picture Odds Triple to 12% as Sumerian Campaigns

Josephine4% → 12%▲8

On Oct. 15, 2026, Sumerian Pictures, the first-time distributor of Josephine, began a multi-category Oscar campaign for the film, which had won the Grand Jury Prize and Audience Award in U.S. Dramatic Competition at Sundance in January. Gold Derby lists Channing Tatum as a possible first-time Supporting Actor nominee. The film's depiction of a child witnessing a sexual assault was noted as a possible obstacle for some voters.

Oct. 13, 2026: Digger's Best Picture Nomination Odds Rise to 26% Despite Bad Reviews

Digger17% → 26%▲9

On Oct. 13, 2026, Digger's odds of a Best Picture nomination at the 99th Academy Awards rose to 26% despite a weak critical and commercial start. The film holds about 52% on Rotten Tomatoes and opened to roughly $8 million in fifth place with a C+ CinemaScore. Cruise's campaign and endorsements from Alfonso Cuarón, Guillermo del Toro, Anne Hathaway and Jane Fonda were cited, though the sources do not establish that they caused the move.

Sept. 8, 2026: The Social Reckoning's Best Picture Odds Fall 12 Points in 3 Days

The Social Reckoning31% → 19%▼12

The Social Reckoning's odds of earning a 2027 Best Picture nomination have fallen from 31% to 19% on prediction markets over the 72 hours ending September 8, 2026. The film touched a period low of 17% before recovering slightly. The spread between Kalshi (18%) and Polymarket (20%) confirms the repricing is consistent across platforms rather than isolated to one venue.

Sept. 6, 2026: The Social Reckoning Drops 8 Points With Zero Bad Reviews

The Social Reckoning38% → 30%▼8

The Social Reckoning's Best Picture nomination odds fell over three days as frontrunners consolidated nomination slots, even though the Aaron Sorkin film has no release until October 9, 2026, and no screenings or negative press have occurred. Analysts attribute the decline to probability compression in a crowded field, with the film absorbing a larger share of the drop because its quality remains unknown.

Sept. 3, 2026: Wild Horse Nine Jumps to 84% for Best Picture Nod After Venice Premiere

Wild Horse Nine71% → 82%▲11

At the Venice Film Festival, Martin McDonagh's CIA thriller Wild Horse Nine premiered, with Sam Rockwell and John Malkovich starring as agents sent to Easter Island ahead of the 1973 Chilean coup. No wide release date has been confirmed and no mainstream reviews had been published by that point. Early social-media reactions from Venice attendees were positive, and the film had ranked ninth in a pre-festival anticipation poll of over 3,500 readers.

Sept. 1, 2026: Fjord Hits 68% for Best Picture With No Reviews or Screenings

Fjord59% → 68%▲9

On September 1, 2026, Fjord, marketed as "Digger," was priced at 68% implied probability for a Best Picture nomination at the 99th Academy Awards, up 9 points in three days, according to Kalshi and Polymarket. The film had no professional reviews, festival screenings, or precursor results on record, and no single confirmed catalyst for the latest climb was reported.

Aug. 29, 2026: Wild Horse Nine Slides to 68% for Best Picture Nomination as The Odyssey

Wild Horse Nine77% → 68%▼9

On August 28, Wild Horse Nine's Oscar nomination odds slid as Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey pulled ahead, with coverage noting that The Odyssey climbed to a 59% implied probability of winning Best Picture outright. Wild Horse Nine, the Martin McDonagh CIA comedy, still ranks third in Best Picture predictions and premieres at the Venice competition on September 3, 2026, with no public screenings or reviews yet.

Aug. 25, 2026: Social Reckoning Best Picture Odds Drop 9 Points Before October Opening

The Social Reckoning32% → 22%▼10

Aaron Sorkin's The Social Reckoning sits at 22% for a Best Picture nomination on Kalshi, down 9 percentage points in three days, before a single audience member has seen the film. The biographical drama opens October 9. No negative review triggered the drop. No test-screening leak surfaced. No controversy emerged around the production.

Aug. 10, 2026: Will The Social Reckoning Win Best Picture After 20pp Odds Drop?

The Social Reckoning42% → 22%▼20

On May 1, 2026, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced new eligibility rules for the 99th ceremony that exclude films with AI-generated actors or scripts from acting and screenwriting categories, while placing AI-enhanced human actors under case-by-case review. Best Picture eligibility was not explicitly addressed, but the rules left The Social Reckoning, which reportedly used AI-assisted visual effects, in an unresolved gray zone. No formal ruling against the film has been issued.

Aug. 7, 2026: Fjord Hits 66% for Best Picture Nomination on Palme d'Or Alone

Fjord56% → 66%▲10

Cristian Mungiu's Norway-set drama about political polarization won the Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival in late May. Neon, the distributor behind previous Cannes-to-Oscar pipelines like Parasite, locked in an October 9, 2026 U.S. release date. That is the entirety of the concrete evidence available to Oscar prognosticators right now. No American critic has reviewed a theatrical screening. No guild has voted. No precursor awards have been handed out. The Oscar nomination window does not close until early January 2027, and the market resolves on January 21, 2027.

Aug. 3, 2026: Fjord Falls 11pp on Oscar Odds as Bettors Confuse 98th and 99th Ceremonies

Fjord69% → 58%▼11

The 98th Academy Awards already happened. The ceremony took place on March 15, 2026. Ten films were nominated for Best Picture: Sinners, One Battle After Another, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Bugonia, F1, and Train Dreams. One Battle After Another took home the top prize. Fjord was not among the nominees. It was not in the conversation.

July 30, 2026: The Social Reckoning Drops 17 Points as Five Films Lock Best Picture Slots

The Social Reckoning40% → 22%▼18

On July 30, 2026, Aaron Sorkin's Facebook whistleblower drama The Social Reckoning saw its Best Picture odds fall sharply. Coverage described no leaked test screening, no cast departures, and no controversy around the film, which still has a October 9 release date. Analysts attributed the drop to strong showings from competing titles such as Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey, which crowded the field.

July 27, 2026: The Social Reckoning Climbs to 28% for a Best Picture Nomination

The Social Reckoning16% → 28%▲12

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has spent a century telling Hollywood the same story: spectacle fills seats, but intimacy wins statues. Avatar lost to The Hurt Locker. Dunkirk lost to The Shape of Water. Even Oppenheimer, which broke the pattern in 2024, required three hours of dialogue-heavy character study to overcome the Academy's reflexive suspicion of anything that opens north of $80 million. Now Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey, a sci-fi epic shot entirely on IMAX film cameras, is dominating early Oscar conversation with a force that makes the historical comparison unavoidable.

July 25, 2026: The Drama's Best Picture Odds Double to 20% on No New Evidence

The Drama10% → 20%▲10

Kristoffer Borgli's The Drama, starring Zendaya and Robert Pattinson, hasn't screened at a fall festival. No critics' circle has convened. No early Oscar precursor has handed it an award. The film opened in April, grossed $134.9 million worldwide on a $28 million budget, and has been commercially dormant for months.

July 21, 2026: Will Digger Win a Best Picture Nomination? Markets Say 68%

Digger60% → 68%▲8

Tom Cruise's first full trailer for Digger dropped timed to the 2026 World Cup final, showcasing the 64-year-old actor performing practical stunts that demonstrated impossible ball control and the kind of physical spectacle that has defined his career for four decades. The trailer's release leaned heavily into Cruise's star-driven appeal, positioning the film as both a blockbuster event and a potential awards contender.

July 16, 2026: Digger Hits 62% for Best Picture Nomination Three Months Before Release

Digger42% → 62%▲20

On July 13, 2026, the first full trailer for Digger was released, showing Tom Cruise in heavy prosthetics as oil tycoon Digger Rockwell. TechRadar noted the wild transformation but stressed the film's tonal ambiguity, while Spanish outlet AS described Cruise as going directly after the Oscar. The film opens October 2 and no critics have screened it yet.

July 13, 2026: Digger Sits at 64% for Best Picture Despite Oscars Concluding in March

Digger73% → 64%▼9

On July 13, 2026, Digger's Best Picture odds on prediction markets were still trading around 64% even though the 98th Academy Awards had already concluded in March and Digger did not appear among the ten nominees. A market analysis noted that the contract's resolution date of January 21, 2027, may instead refer to the 99th ceremony, and that no major awards body has recognized the film with a nomination to date.

July 9, 2026: Digger Hits 75% for Best Picture Despite No Current Nomination

Digger60% → 75%▲15

On July 9, 2026, a Digger Best Picture market rose to 75%, but no news development was identified that day. Reporting noted that Digger was not among the ten nominees for the 98th Academy Awards and that the contract's January 21, 2027 resolution date appears to refer to the 99th ceremony. Coverage found no trailer, festival premiere, or trade review explaining the move.

June 8, 2026: Wild Horse Nine Climbs to 66% Best Picture Nomination Odds

Wild Horse Nine59% → 66%▲7

On June 8, 2026, no concrete development in the Wild Horse Nine Oscar story was reported. Searches of trade publications, festival announcements, and studio release calendars turned up no release date, distributor, festival selection, or critical review for the film.