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Live prediction market odds for Oscar winner: Best Actress. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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Oscar winner: Best Actress

2027-03-14

Best price · tap to trade

Julianne Moore60¢1.67xKalshiInde Navarrette15¢6.67xKalshiSandra Hüller4¢25.00xPolymarket US
Compare all 18 outcomes across 3 venues

About This Market

Traders give Julianne Moore about a 62.3% chance. Inde Navarrette follows at 15.0%, Sandra Hüller follows at 4.8%, and Anne Hathaway follows at 3.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 6.0 percentage points.

Traders give Julianne Moore about a 62.3% chance. Inde Navarrette follows at 15.0%, Sandra Hüller follows at 4.8%, and Anne Hathaway follows at 3.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 6.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Oscar winner for Best Actress in 2027. This prestigious award influences industry recognition and can significantly impact an actress's career trajectory and future opportunities in film.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
JM
Julianne MooreARB
62%
Kalshi60¢
Polymarket US62¢
Polymarket67¢
Kalshi1.67x60¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
60.0%59¢60¢40¢41¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
61.0%61¢62¢38¢39¢
PolymarketPolymarket
66.0%66¢67¢33¢34¢
IN
Inde Navarrette
15%
Kalshi15¢
Polymarket US15¢
—
Kalshi6.67x15¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
15.0%14¢15¢85¢86¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
15.0%14¢15¢85¢86¢
SH
Sandra Hüller
5%
Kalshi5¢
Polymarket US4¢
Polymarket7¢
Polymarket US25.00x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
5.0%4¢5¢95¢96¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
3.5%3¢4¢96¢97¢
PolymarketPolymarket
5.9%5¢7¢93¢95¢
AH
Anne HathawayARB
4%
Kalshi2¢
Polymarket US5¢
—
Kalshi50.00x2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.0%1¢2¢98¢99¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
5.0%4¢5¢95¢96¢
RR
Renate Reinsve
3%
Kalshi3¢
Polymarket US3¢
Polymarket3¢
Kalshi33.33x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
3.0%2¢3¢97¢98¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
2.0%2¢3¢97¢98¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.8%2¢3¢97¢98¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Candidate Spotlight

About Julianne Moore

Julianne Moore is an American actress and author. She won the Academy Award for Best Actress for her role in 'Still Alice' (2014). She is recognized for her versatile performances in both independent and blockbuster films.

About Inde Navarrette

Inde Navarrette is an American actress known for her role as Sarah Cushing in the TV series 'Superman & Lois'. She gained recognition for portraying Estela de la Cruz in the Netflix series '13 Reasons Why'. Her recent performance in the horror film 'Obsession' has established her as a rising talent in the entertainment industry.

About Sandra Hüller

Sandra Hüller is a German actress known for her versatile performances in film and theater. She gained international acclaim for her role in 'Toni Erdmann' (2016), which earned her the European Film Award for Best Actress. Hüller has received numerous accolades, including two Silver Bears, two European Film Awards, a César Award, and three German Film Awards.

About Anne Hathaway

Anne Hathaway is an American actress and producer. She won the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress for her role in 'Les Misérables' (2012). She has received various accolades including an Academy Award, a British Academy Film Award, two Critics' Choice Movie Awards, a Primetime Emmy Award, a Golden Globe Award, and a Screen Actors Guild Award.

About Renate Reinsve

Renate Reinsve is a Norwegian actress known for her role as Julie in 'The Worst Person in the World' (2021). She won the Cannes Film Festival Award for Best Actress for this performance. Reinsve has been recognized with multiple award nominations, including the BAFTA Award for Best Actress in a Leading Role.

Smart Trade Router

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¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread6.0%
Platforms3
Candidates18
Leader

Julianne Moore

62.3% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Oscar winner: Best Actress

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Julianne Moore has won Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The 99thth Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if Julianne Moore wins Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards. Outcome sourced from Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Best Actress Oscar?

Odds are influenced by performances in major films, critical acclaim, and awards leading up to the Oscars, such as the Golden Globes. Public sentiment and media coverage also play a significant role in shaping expectations.

How do prediction markets operate for the Oscars?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of outcomes, such as award winners. Prices fluctuate based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of market participants.

When will the Best Actress Oscar be awarded?

The Best Actress Oscar will be awarded on March 14, 2027, during the annual Academy Awards ceremony. This event is one of the highlights of the entertainment calendar, celebrating achievements in film.

What does the Oscar winner: Best Actress prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Oscar winner: Best Actress odds?

The latest available prices are Julianne Moore: 60.0¢ on Kalshi, 66.0¢ on Polymarket, 61.0¢ on Polymarket US; Inde Navarrette: 15.0¢ on Kalshi, 15.0¢ on Polymarket US; Sandra Hüller: 5.0¢ on Kalshi, 5.9¢ on Polymarket, 3.5¢ on Polymarket US; Anne Hathaway: 2.0¢ on Kalshi, 5.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Julianne Moore Drops 9 Points in Best Actress Market After Mixed TIFFMoore falls from 70% to 62% in three days. Critics praised her work in 'The Debut' but called the Jesse Eisenberg-directed film tonally incoherent.Sep 23, 2026Julianne Moore Hits 57% Best Actress Odds With No Precursor YetMoore jumped from 28% to 57% in 72 hours on Kalshi and Polymarket. Her nomination probability, 94%, is the highest in the field.Sep 8, 2026Rival's Campaign Pushed Julianne Moore to 52% Best Actress FavoriteFocus Features' push for Inde Navarrette collapsed field ambiguity, lifting Moore 24 points in 72 hours. She now leads at 52% while Navarrette draws heavier nomination volume.Sep 6, 2026Reinsve at 13% to Win 2027 Best Actress Oscar After Buckley Takes 2026Buckley's March 15 win closed the 2026 race. Reinsve's contract now resolves March 14, 2027, with A24's *Backrooms* as her likeliest campaign vehicle.Jul 31, 2026

Prediction Market Track Record

Critics Choice Awards: Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television WinnerLOSTPre-event: 0%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Critics Choice Awards: Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television Winner

Resolved

2026-01-04

LOSTJulianne Moore
Pre-event: 0%

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Resolved

2026-12-31

LOSTAnne Hathaway
Pre-event: 1%

Prediction Market Track Record

Who will host Saturday Night Live Season 51?LOSTPre-event: 1%
No price history available