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Live prediction market odds for Oscar Winner: Best Documentary Feature Film. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket

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Oscar Winner: Best Documentary Feature Film

2027-03-14

Best price · tap to trade

One in a Million5¢20.00xKalshiOnce Upon a Time in Harlem7¢14.29xKalshiTutu3¢33.33xKalshi
Compare all 6 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give One in a Million about a 3.8% chance. Once Upon a Time in Harlem follows at 4.8%, Tutu follows at 2.9%, and Musk follows at 2.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 5.5 percentage points.

Traders give One in a Million about a 3.8% chance. Once Upon a Time in Harlem follows at 4.8%, Tutu follows at 2.9%, and Musk follows at 2.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 5.5 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Oscar Winner for Best Documentary Feature Film. This award influences industry recognition and can impact future funding and distribution opportunities for filmmakers.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
OI
One in a Million
4%
Kalshi5¢
Polymarket8¢
Kalshi20.00x5¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%1¢5¢95¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
6.5%5¢8¢92¢95¢
OU
Once Upon a Time in Harlem
5%
Kalshi7¢
Polymarket7¢
Kalshi14.29x7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
4.5%2¢7¢93¢98¢
PolymarketPolymarket
5.0%3¢7¢93¢97¢
T
Tutu
3%
Kalshi3¢
Polymarket4¢
Kalshi33.33x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.0%2¢3¢97¢98¢
PolymarketPolymarket
3.8%4¢4¢96¢96¢
M
Musk
2%
Kalshi5¢
Polymarket3¢
Kalshi20.00x5¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.5%0¢5¢95¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.6%0¢3¢97¢100¢
NB
Nuisance Bear
2%
Kalshi3¢
Polymarket2¢
Kalshi33.33x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.5%0¢3¢97¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.0%0¢2¢98¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread5.5%
Platforms2
Candidates6
Leader

One in a Million

3.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Oscar Winner: Best Documentary Feature Film

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Musk has won Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Best Documentary Feature Film Oscar?

Odds are influenced by critical reviews, audience reception, and previous awards won by the documentaries. Additionally, marketing campaigns and filmmaker reputations play a significant role.

When will the Oscar for Best Documentary Feature Film be awarded?

The Oscar for Best Documentary Feature Film will be awarded on March 14, 2027. This date is part of the annual Academy Awards ceremony.

How do prediction markets work for events like the Oscars?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their predictions of outcomes. Prices reflect the collective sentiment and expectations of participants regarding the likelihood of winning.

What does the Oscar Winner: Best Documentary Feature Film prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Oscar Winner: Best Documentary Feature Film odds?

The latest available prices are One in a Million: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 6.5¢ on Polymarket; Once Upon a Time in Harlem: 4.5¢ on Kalshi, 5.0¢ on Polymarket; Tutu: 2.0¢ on Kalshi, 3.8¢ on Polymarket; Musk: 2.5¢ on Kalshi, 1.6¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Harlem Doc Hits 24% Oscar Odds After Library of Congress PrizeThe $200,000 Lavine/Ken Burns Prize pushed Once Upon a Time in Harlem from 16% to 24% in three days, its highest market position since Sundance.Sep 19, 2026Once Upon a Time in Harlem Climbs to 22% as Rival Docs Hit TurbulenceThe Sundance doc recovered 8 points from a Sept. 9 trough of 14%, with no new catalyst of its own, as NAZA controversy and new TIFF entrants fragmented the field.Sep 17, 2026Once Upon a Time in Harlem Oscar Odds Fall to 12% in Three DaysThe former frontrunner lost nearly half its probability with no news catalyst, dropping it into a three-way tie behind American Doctor at 16%.Sep 12, 2026Once Upon a Time in Harlem Oscar Odds Fall to 14%, Tied for SecondThree days erased 10 points from the frontrunner's lead. It now trails American Doctor at 16% with One in a Million matching it at 14%.Sep 9, 2026