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Live prediction market odds for Oscar Winner: Best Original Screenplay. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket

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Oscar Winner: Best Original Screenplay

2027-03-14

Best price · tap to trade

Wild Horse Nine54¢1.85xKalshiThe Debut20¢5.00xKalshiObsession7¢14.29xKalshi
Compare all 18 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give Wild Horse Nine about a 49.5% chance. The Debut follows at 24.1%, Obsession follows at 7.5%, and Digger follows at 6.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 8.2 percentage points.

Traders give Wild Horse Nine about a 49.5% chance. The Debut follows at 24.1%, Obsession follows at 7.5%, and Digger follows at 6.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 8.2 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Oscar Winner for Best Original Screenplay, set to take place on March 14, 2027. This award highlights the creativity and innovation in screenwriting, influencing industry recognition and future projects for the winning writers.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
WH
Wild Horse Nine
50%
Kalshi54¢
Polymarket48¢
Kalshi1.85x54¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
52.0%49¢54¢46¢51¢
PolymarketPolymarket
47.0%46¢48¢52¢54¢
TD
The DebutARB
24%
Kalshi20¢
Polymarket29¢
Kalshi5.00x20¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
20.0%17¢20¢80¢83¢
PolymarketPolymarket
28.2%26¢29¢71¢74¢
O
Obsession
8%
Kalshi7¢
Polymarket9¢
Kalshi14.29x7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
7.0%6¢7¢93¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
8.0%7¢9¢91¢93¢
D
Digger
7%
Kalshi12¢
Polymarket10¢
Kalshi8.33x12¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
8.0%4¢12¢88¢96¢
PolymarketPolymarket
5.8%1¢10¢90¢99¢
E
Elsinore
5%
Kalshi3¢
Polymarket15¢
Kalshi33.33x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.5%0¢3¢97¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
7.8%1¢15¢85¢99¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread8.2%
Platforms2
Candidates18
Leader

Wild Horse Nine

49.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Oscar Winner: Best Original Screenplay

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Forgotten Island has won Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What criteria are used to determine the Best Original Screenplay winner?

The winner is selected by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences based on the originality and quality of the screenplay. Factors include narrative structure, character development, and dialogue.

How do prediction markets reflect changes in Oscar odds?

Prediction markets adjust in real-time based on industry buzz, critical reviews, and audience reactions. As films are released and gain traction, odds may shift to reflect perceived chances of winning.

What impact does winning an Oscar have on screenwriters?

Winning an Oscar can significantly boost a screenwriter's career, leading to more opportunities and higher-profile projects. It also enhances their reputation within the industry and among audiences.

What does the Oscar Winner: Best Original Screenplay prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Oscar Winner: Best Original Screenplay odds?

The latest available prices are Wild Horse Nine: 52.0¢ on Kalshi, 47.0¢ on Polymarket; The Debut: 20.0¢ on Kalshi, 28.2¢ on Polymarket; Obsession: 7.0¢ on Kalshi, 8.0¢ on Polymarket; Digger: 8.0¢ on Kalshi, 5.8¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Wild Horse Nine Climbs to 44% for Best Original ScreenplayMcDonagh's script jumps 10 points in three days after a 13-minute Venice ovation and TIFF critical consensus, with La bola negra the nearest threat.Sep 22, 2026Digger's Best Original Screenplay Odds Fall to 20% With No PrecursorThe 30% recovery has reversed over three days with zero precursor wins awarded in the category and no confirmed catalyst driving the move.Sep 20, 2026Digger Rebounds to 30% for Best Original ScreenplayDigger climbed from 7% to 30%, overtaking The Debut at 28% in a race where no film has earned a single precursor win and Kalshi prices Digger at 52% while Polymarket holds it at 8%.Sep 18, 2026The Debut Leads Best Original Screenplay After Digger's Genre-ConfusionDigger shed 10 points in three days on genre-confusion concerns, handing The Debut a borrowed lead at 28% with no precursor wins backing it.Sep 15, 2026

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