Oscar Winner: Best Original Screenplay
Live prediction market odds for Oscar Winner: Best Original Screenplay. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Compare all 18 outcomes across 2 venuesTraders give Wild Horse Nine about a 66.0% chance. The Debut follows at 17.8%, Obsession follows at 9.5%, and Club Kid follows at 3.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.6 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Forgotten Island has won Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.
The winner is selected by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences based on the originality and quality of the screenplay. Factors include narrative structure, character development, and dialogue.
Prediction markets adjust in real-time based on industry buzz, critical reviews, and audience reactions. As films are released and gain traction, odds may shift to reflect perceived chances of winning.
Winning an Oscar can significantly boost a screenwriter's career, leading to more opportunities and higher-profile projects. It also enhances their reputation within the industry and among audiences.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Wild Horse Nine: 66.5¢ on Kalshi, 65.5¢ on Polymarket; The Debut: 16.0¢ on Kalshi, 19.6¢ on Polymarket; Obsession: 9.0¢ on Kalshi, 10.0¢ on Polymarket; Club Kid: 3.0¢ on Kalshi, 3.6¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
