Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?
Live prediction market odds for Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Predict.fun.
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Traders give Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? about a 4.7% chance. November 21 follows at 2.4% and November 14 follows at 0.3%. Compare prices from Polymarket and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.3 percentage points.
Polymarket
Predict.funPolymarketPredict.funOfficial settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Polymarket and Predict.fun.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Predict.funThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The market resolves when Pete Hegseth officially announces his resignation or is confirmed to have left the position as Secretary of Defense.
Polymarket and Predictfun are the platforms currently tracking the potential resignation of Pete Hegseth.
The scheduled trading close for this market is December 1, 2026, but the actual resolution depends on Hegseth's resignation by November 30.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?: 5.3¢ on Polymarket, 4.0¢ on Predict.fun; November 21: 2.4¢ on Polymarket; November 14: 0.3¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
