Hegseth Out by Nov. 30? Odds Fall to 4% After House Impeachment Vote

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Hegseth Out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? Market Drops to 4% After House Sends Impeachment to Committee

Pete Hegseth is unlikely to leave as Secretary of Defense by Nov. 30, and no resignation, firing or departure announcement had been reported as of Nov. 11. On Nov. 10, the House voted 211-204 to refer Rep. Thomas Massie's eight impeachment articles to committee, effectively ending the effort for this Congress, according to AP News.

The vote answers whether the House impeached Hegseth: it did not. The House referred the articles to committee and did not adopt them. The Polymarket contract on his exit by Nov. 30 fell from 24% to 4% over three days, a drop of about 20 percentage points. The 4% price on Nov. 11 is the lowest this market has traded during that period. Without a floor vote, the clearest near-term path to a forced exit before the deadline is gone.

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Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?

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Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?In this story

5%

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2%

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Hegseth treated the result as a win. He held a rare Pentagon press conference and called the impeachment effort a "farce," The Washington Post reported. The pressure on him comes mainly from the Iran war, which began Feb. 28 and has been blamed for Republican midterm losses. It also stems from strikes on alleged drug boats, the Maduro capture and his firings of senior officers.

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Will Trump Fire Hegseth? Presidential Backing and the Pressure That Comes After Nov. 30

With impeachment shelved, the remaining exits before Nov. 30 are a firing or a resignation. The sourced signals point away from both. Trump publicly said Hegseth is doing a "fantastic job" and celebrated the House outcome. The Pentagon has said Hegseth intends to serve through the end of Trump's term.

Some Republicans expect pressure to build later, but not before the contract's deadline. Sen. Ted Cruz predicted on Nov. 10 that Hegseth will resign, be fired or be impeached by the House, per The Hill. Sen. Thom Tillis said he would likely vote to convict if articles reached the Senate, NBC News reported. Democrats take both chambers in January and have promised investigations and possible renewed impeachment. Massie argued that Trump should replace Hegseth before that Congress is seated.

The case against the low price rests on private signals. On Nov. 4, NBC reported that Trump had privately discussed possible replacements. The Washington Post reported that Trump might also consider ousting Gen. Dan Caine or Adm. Brad Cooper. Rep. Gregory Meeks urged Hegseth to resign and compared the moment to Donald Rumsfeld's exit after the 2006 midterms, while Rep. Ro Khanna called for impeachment. Rumsfeld's departure came quickly after a president had publicly backed him, so Trump's endorsement does not rule out a sudden move.

What would confirm or reverse the price

The price would be confirmed if the deadline passes with no departure announced. It would reverse on a reported resignation, a shift in Trump's or the White House's public stance, or reporting that the replacement talks NBC described have advanced. Readers can follow the price on the Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30 market page. The contract resolves after Nov. 30.