Meta's Top AI Model Odds Fall to 6% as Wonder Full Ranks #7

Meta is unlikely to have a top-ranked AI model this year, according to traders in Kalshi's "Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?" market, where its odds fell from 10% to 6%. Meta launched Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full, its first frontier models, on Oct 12. On Oct 19, BenchLeader ranked Wonder Full seventh at 68.6. Anthropic's Claude Opus 5.5 (71.7), Google's Gemini 4 Argon (71.3) and two OpenAI models placed ahead of it.

---

Meta's odds of a top-ranked AI model this year fall to 6% after Muse Wonder Full debuts at #7

The launch did not lift Meta's contract. Its price fell from about 10% to 6%, a drop of roughly 4 percentage points, and stood at 6% on Oct 19. That ties the period low. The only ranking that puts Wonder Full first is Meta's own. Its Personal Superintelligence Index scores Wonder Full at 59.1, against 55.2 for Opus 5.5 and 54.5 for GPT-6 Astra. Meta selected and published that benchmark itself, so it is not an independent ranking.

Live market odds

2 venues

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? [Yes]In this story

8%

KalshiBest price11.11x9¢Polymarket10.00x10¢

Nvidia

2%

Kalshi33.33x3¢

Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? [Yes]

8%

PolymarketBest price12.50x8¢Kalshi10.00x10¢

Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? [Yes]

3%

KalshiBest price33.33x3¢Polymarket33.33x3¢

New to Kalshi? Get a $35 trading bonus

Code PRED35. New users only. Eligibility restrictions and terms apply.

Claim offer

Compare every venueCents per $1 payout, before fees

Third-party aggregates give a more mixed result. Wonder Full scores 56 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, which ranks it second globally, about two points behind Claude Opus 5.5, according to WooFun. BenchLeader combines 77 index-feeding benchmarks from sources including Artificial Analysis, LMArena and SWE-bench, and that wider view drops Wonder Full to seventh.

1D7D30D

---

What could move Meta's top-ranked odds next

Meta's contract would need Wonder Full to climb on an independent board: BenchLeader, which updates daily at 22:03 UTC, or Arena. Closing a 3.1-point gap means passing six models from three labs. A new release from Anthropic, Google or OpenAI could widen that gap.

Meta's Muse Spark Open, released Oct 15, appears on BenchLeader's recent-additions list. It is not in the top ten. Meta's first-place ranking on its own index does not count toward the independent leaderboards cited here. The sources give no scheduled ranking event, so the next confirmation point is the next leaderboard update. Live pricing for every lab is on the top-ranked AI model market page. The market resolves on Jan 2, 2027.