Will James Talarico outperform the Real Clear Polling average in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas?
Live prediction market odds for Will James Talarico outperform the Real Clear Polling average in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas?. Compare prices across Kalshi and PredictIt.
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Traders give Will James Talarico outperform the Real Clear Polling average in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas? about a 99.0% chance. Compare prices from Kalshi and PredictIt.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf James Talarico's margin of victory outperforms that of the Real Clear Polling average at 10 AM ET on Nov 3, 2026 in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas, then the market resolves to Yes. The market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. "Outperform" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; "underperform" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. For the purposes of this market, the Real Clear Polling average for the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas at 10 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is used to determine relative performance. At that time the average was Talarico 49.1%, Paxton 46.5% (Talarico +2.6), so James Talarico's polling margin is +2.6 points. James Talarico outperforms if the certified margin of victory is greater than +2.6 points. For a winning candidate, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the candidate's vote share and their closest competitor's share. For a losing candidate, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the candidate’s vote share and the vote share of the candidate immediately ahead of them. Positive margins indicate the candidate won, negative margins indicate they lost, and zero indicates a tie. The polling margin is calculated the same way from the RCP Average figures, so a deficit in the average is a negative margin. Vote shares are percentages of all votes cast for the office. Write-in votes are aggregated as a single candidate if not individually reported. Only certified results are used for resolution. Recounts that change the certified margin before expiration use the most recent certified results.
The Real Clear Polling average is a compilation of polling data from various sources that reflects the overall sentiment toward candidates in an election. It provides a benchmark against which individual candidates' performances can be measured.
The market resolves based on whether Talarico's polling numbers exceed the Real Clear Polling average at the time of the election results announcement. If he surpasses this average, the market will settle in his favor.
Polling numbers can be influenced by campaign activities, debates, media coverage, and voter sentiment leading up to the election. Changes in public opinion can significantly affect his standing relative to the Real Clear Polling average.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, PredictIt in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Will James Talarico outperform the Real Clear Polling average in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas?: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.0¢ on PredictIt. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
