Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?
Live prediction market odds for Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Listed Updated Expected to settle by
Traders give Neros Technologies about a 69.5% chance. Unusual Machines follows at 13.5%, Performance Drone Works follows at 7.0%, and Spirit Airlines follows at 2.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketOfficial settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of Spirit Airlines before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests. This includes indirect ownership through wholly controlled investment vehicles and convertible rights treated as equity. Pre-existing stakes count toward the threshold. Ownership is aggregated across all share classes and listings. Crossing the threshold at any point satisfies the criterion regardless of subsequent changes. Non-equity instruments like bonds or loans don't qualify. Stakes by sovereign wealth funds or state-owned enterprises attributed to the body count. The value can be expressed as percentage ownership, monetary value, or share count, with percentage being the default unless specified.
Factors include economic stability, strategic importance to national interests, and potential for job creation. Additionally, the government may consider technological advancements and the company's role in addressing critical challenges.
Prediction markets analyze various data points, including political trends, economic indicators, and expert opinions. Market participants place bets based on their insights, which helps reflect the perceived probabilities of outcomes.
Government investments can enhance a company's credibility and financial stability, potentially attracting private investors. They may also lead to increased regulatory scrutiny and influence competitive dynamics within the industry.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Neros Technologies: 69.5¢ on Kalshi; Unusual Machines: 13.5¢ on Kalshi, 13.5¢ on Polymarket; Performance Drone Works: 7.0¢ on Kalshi; Spirit Airlines: 2.5¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
