Prediction HuntPrediction.com
Odds
Sports OddsNFL OddsNCAAF OddsMLB OddsTennis OddsElections OddsPolitics OddsEntertainment OddsEconomics OddsCrypto Odds
Futures
NFL FuturesMLB FuturesNCAAF FuturesMidterm Elections
All MarketsTrending
PicksArbitrageSmart MoneyAgentsPaper Trading Simulator
Promos
Best Prediction Market PromosKalshi Promo CodePolymarket Promo Code
Compare
Best Prediction Market Apps
NewsCalculatorsBlogIndustry Data
OverviewDocumentationQuickstartPricing
  • Best price across Kalshi, Polymarket & more
  • Live odds, refreshed in real time
  • Arbitrage alerts
  • Follow the smart money
  • Exclusive sign-up promos
  • Best price across Kalshi, Polymarket & more
  • Live odds, refreshed in real time
  • Arbitrage alerts
  • Follow the smart money
  • Exclusive sign-up promos
Prediction HuntPrediction.com

The home of prediction markets

Markets

  • Sports Odds
  • NFL Odds
  • College Football Odds
  • MLB Odds
  • Tennis Odds
  • Election Odds
  • Politics Odds
  • Entertainment Odds
  • Economics Odds
  • Crypto Odds
  • Trending

Edge

  • Picks
  • Smart Money Feed
  • Arbitrage Scanner
  • Paper Trading Simulator
  • AI Agents

Compare

  • Best Prediction Market Apps
  • Best Prediction Market Promos

Resources

  • News
  • Blog
  • Calculators
  • X
  • Discord

API

  • API Overview
  • API Documentation
  • Quickstart
  • API Pricing

This information is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always verify resolution criteria and platform rules before trading.

  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Use
  • API Terms
PicksSmart MoneyArbitragePromos

Live prediction market odds for Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
Sign-up bonus

Get a $35 trading bonus

Sign-up bonus on Kalshi.

Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket

XTelegramWhatsAppReddit

Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?

2026-12-31

Best price · tap to trade

Unusual Machines43¢2.33xKalshiNeros Technologies25¢4.00xKalshiPerformance Drone Works15¢6.67xKalshi
Compare all 4 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give Unusual Machines about a 44.0% chance. Neros Technologies follows at 18.0%, Performance Drone Works follows at 10.0%, and Spirit Airlines follows at 4.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 10.0 percentage points.

Traders give Unusual Machines about a 44.0% chance. Neros Technologies follows at 18.0%, Performance Drone Works follows at 10.0%, and Spirit Airlines follows at 4.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 10.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking which companies the US will take a stake in this year. This event is crucial as it reflects government investment strategies and can influence market dynamics and company valuations.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
UM
Unusual Machines
44%
Kalshi43¢
Polymarket76¢
Kalshi2.33x43¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
39.0%37¢43¢57¢63¢
PolymarketPolymarket
49.0%40¢76¢24¢60¢
NT
Neros Technologies
single venue18%
Kalshi25¢
—
Kalshi4.00x25¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
18.0%18¢25¢75¢82¢
PD
Performance Drone Works
single venue10%
Kalshi15¢
—
Kalshi6.67x15¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
10.0%8¢15¢85¢92¢
SA
Spirit Airlines
single venue4%
Kalshi4¢
—
Kalshi25.00x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
4.0%3¢4¢96¢97¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread10.0%
Platforms2
Candidates4
Leader

Unusual Machines

44.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of Spirit Airlines before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests. This includes indirect ownership through wholly controlled investment vehicles and convertible rights treated as equity. Pre-existing stakes count toward the threshold. Ownership is aggregated across all share classes and listings. Crossing the threshold at any point satisfies the criterion regardless of subsequent changes. Non-equity instruments like bonds or loans don't qualify. Stakes by sovereign wealth funds or state-owned enterprises attributed to the body count. The value can be expressed as percentage ownership, monetary value, or share count, with percentage being the default unless specified.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the US government's decision to take stakes in companies?

Factors include economic stability, strategic importance to national interests, and potential for job creation. Additionally, the government may consider technological advancements and the company's role in addressing critical challenges.

How do prediction markets assess the likelihood of government investments?

Prediction markets analyze various data points, including political trends, economic indicators, and expert opinions. Market participants place bets based on their insights, which helps reflect the perceived probabilities of outcomes.

What impact do government stakes in companies have on the market?

Government investments can enhance a company's credibility and financial stability, potentially attracting private investors. They may also lead to increased regulatory scrutiny and influence competitive dynamics within the industry.

What does the Which companies will the US take a stake in this year prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Which companies will the US take a stake in this year odds?

The latest available prices are Unusual Machines: 39.0¢ on Kalshi, 49.0¢ on Polymarket; Neros Technologies: 18.0¢ on Kalshi; Performance Drone Works: 10.0¢ on Kalshi; Spirit Airlines: 4.0¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

Related Markets

TN-04 House Election Winner

View

Who will win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?

View

Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?

View

2028: Who will win the Presidency, House, and Senate?

View

Laurent Lokoli vs. Daniel Michalski

Resolved Sep 26

Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Don Jr. Probe Cuts Unusual Machines Government Stake Odds to 26%Unusual Machines fell from 45% to 26% in three days after House Democrats opened a 1789 Capital investigation that clouds all Trump-adjacent defense deals.Aug 30, 2026Unusual Machines Mirrors the Playbook That Won MP Materials a FederalUMAC deployed $230M in 90 days across a public offering, strategic materials purchases, and a $30M equity stake in counter-drone maker Powerus.Aug 28, 2026Unusual Machines' Government Stake Odds Drop to 36% as Equity CapitalOdds fell from 47% to 36% in three days. Defense contracts clarified the relationship as transactional, while US equity capital targeted quantum and chip companies.Aug 25, 2026Unusual Machines Hits 42% Odds for US Government Equity StakePrediction markets repriced UMAC 8 points in three days. The trigger was the $30M Powerus investment, not any government announcement.Aug 7, 2026