Which Companies Will the US Take a Stake in This Year? Latest News

The market asks which companies the US government will take an equity stake in during 2026, and it resolves on Dec. 31, 2026. Companies in contention include Unusual Machines, which has been in Pentagon funding talks since a May report, and Neros Technologies, which says the Pentagon's Office of Strategic Capital gets a small, non-voting stake alongside a conditional loan of up to $450M. The government already holds roughly 35 stakes, including Intel and MP Materials.

The rule that matters most is that a loan alone is not a stake. The Office of Strategic Capital's release on Neros mentions only debt, and the equity claim comes from the company. We did not verify whether the resolution wording counts a stake reported by a company rather than confirmed by the government. Unusual Machines has had no signed deal, and a loan-only outcome would not count.

Nov. 7, 2026: Will the US Take a Stake in Neros? Pentagon Loan Lifts It to 88%

Neros Technologies says the US is taking a stake in it. The Torrance, California drone maker says the Pentagon's Office of Strategic Capital (OSC) receives a small, non-voting stake alongside a conditional loan of up to $450M announced Nov. 2, 2026. The OSC's own release does not mention a stake, and no size, price or form of equity has been disclosed.

Will the US Take a Stake in Neros Technologies? Neros Says Yes, the Pentagon Hasn't

On Kalshi's "Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?" market, Neros rose from 19% to 88% over three days, a gain of about 69 percentage points, as of Nov. 7. The price followed reports this week that Neros itself described the stake. The market is pricing a company-reported stake that the government has not confirmed in its own announcement.

What Neros and the OSC Have Each Said About the Loan and Stake

The government's account covers only the debt. The OSC committed up to $450M to expand Neros's domestic production of drones and components, including motors, radios, flight electronics, sensors and batteries. Neros adds $165M of its own equity, for a $615M project. Before financial close, Neros must satisfy financial, legal, technical, investment and due-diligence requirements, so the loan is not final.

The equity claim comes from Neros. Its website said the deal gives the American taxpayer an ownership stake, according to BattlePolicy. Head of growth Ross Pedersen told Tectonic Defense that the Pentagon gets a "small stake" with no voting or decision-making rights. DroneXL reported the same characterization. This article did not verify whether the market's resolution wording counts a stake reported by the company rather than by the government.

What Would Confirm or Reverse the Neros Stake Price

Three developments would support the price: an OSC or Department of Defense statement acknowledging equity, loan documents that show it, or a disclosure of the stake's percentage or form, such as warrants or conversion rights.

Three developments would undercut it: an OSC clarification that the deal involves no equity, a revised Neros statement, or the loan failing to close because Neros does not meet its conditions. Political scrutiny is also rising. Bloomberg reports that Democrats' midterm gains have increased pressure on Trump-backed equity deals. CNBC reports that incoming committee chairs plan to use subpoena power starting in January. Neither report names Neros. Prices for other outcomes appear on the US government company stakes market page.

Neither the OSC nor Neros has set a public date for financial close. Until the Pentagon says whether it holds equity, Neros remains the only source for the stake.

Earlier Updates

Oct. 19, 2026: US Stake in Unusual Machines: Odds Rise to 40% With No Deal

Unusual Machines33% → 40%▲7

On Oct. 16, Prediction.com reported that the Pentagon's funding talks with Unusual Machines were still in due diligence, with no agreement signed. Over the following three days the market price for a US stake rose from about 33% to 40%, while Kalshi and Polymarket priced it at 30% and 50% respectively. The same week, the government announced equity deals with Anduril's Arsenal-2 shipyard and GlobalFoundries.

Which Companies Will the US Take a Stake in This Year? Latest News