About This Market
Traders give 1575 about a 38.3% chance. 1600 follows at 8.3%. Compare prices from Polymarket and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.5 percentage points.
Live prediction market odds for Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Predict.fun.
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Traders give 1575 about a 38.3% chance. 1600 follows at 8.3%. Compare prices from Polymarket and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.5 percentage points.
1575
38.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Predict.fun.
Predict.funThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Created At: 2026-04-02T22:40:39.495443986Z
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are 1575: 39.0¢ on Polymarket, 37.5¢ on Predict.fun; 1600: 8.0¢ on Polymarket, 8.5¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 1.5 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, 1575 at 38.3¢ implies about a 38.3% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.
Smart money is heavily buying 1600
Buy Yes at 9¢$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow
Bought $104 of No
Net flow from wallets with $10K+ lifetime profit. Buying No or selling Yes counts toward No.