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Live prediction market odds for Which party will win the House race for NY-18?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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Which party will win the House race for NY-18?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Pat Ryan (D)92¢1.09xPolymarket USJacqueline Auringer (R)8¢12.50xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Pat Ryan (D) about a 93.0% chance. Jacqueline Auringer (R) follows at 6.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.8 percentage points.

Traders give Pat Ryan (D) about a 93.0% chance. Jacqueline Auringer (R) follows at 6.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.8 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the House race for NY-18, set for November 2026. This election will influence the balance of power in Congress, making it a focal point for both parties as they strategize their campaigns and voter outreach efforts.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
PR
Pat Ryan (D)
93%
Kalshi97¢
Polymarket US92¢
Polymarket93¢
Polymarket US1.09x92¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
94.8%93¢97¢3¢8¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
91.0%91¢92¢8¢9¢
PolymarketPolymarket
93.3%93¢93¢7¢7¢
JA
Jacqueline Auringer (R)
6%
Kalshi8¢
—
Polymarket7¢
Kalshi13.33x8¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
5.8%4¢8¢93¢96¢
PolymarketPolymarket
6.7%6¢7¢93¢94¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Pat Ryan (D)

Pat Ryan is the U.S. Representative for New York's 18th Congressional District. He previously served as Ulster County Executive from 2019 to 2022. His military service includes two combat tours in Iraq as an Army intelligence officer, earning two Bronze Star Medals.

About Jacqueline Auringer (R)

Jacqueline Mary Auringer is a Republican candidate for the U.S. House in New York's 18th Congressional District. She works as a project manager and managerial accountant in her family's construction business, Urban Precast. Auringer advocates for lower taxes, reduced government spending, and policies that support working families and small businesses.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.8%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Pat Ryan (D)

93.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Which party will win the House race for NY-18?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for NY-18 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the NY-18 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors could influence the outcome of the NY-18 House race?

Key factors include voter turnout, party campaign strategies, and local issues that resonate with constituents. Additionally, national trends and the political climate leading up to the election will play a significant role.

How do prediction markets reflect public sentiment about the NY-18 race?

Prediction markets aggregate bets from participants, reflecting their expectations about the race's outcome. Changes in odds can indicate shifts in public opinion or new developments in the campaign.

What is the significance of the NY-18 House race in the broader political context?

Winning NY-18 could be pivotal for either party in maintaining or gaining control of the House of Representatives. The outcome may also impact future legislative agendas and party strategies leading into subsequent elections.

What does the Which party will win the House race for NY-18 prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Which party will win the House race for NY-18 odds?

The latest available prices are Pat Ryan (D): 94.8¢ on Kalshi, 93.3¢ on Polymarket, 91.0¢ on Polymarket US; Jacqueline Auringer (R): 5.8¢ on Kalshi, 6.7¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Pat Ryan's NY-18 Odds Surge to 92% With No News Catalyst in SightA 12-point move in 3 days with no public catalyst; Kalshi prices Ryan at 94% vs. Polymarket's 90%, confirming cross-platform consensus.Jul 6, 2026