If legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation qualifies if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, whether through a rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, a change in applicable thresholds, a change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer’s overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, do not qualify. A qualifying change may be temporary and need not take effect before the specified deadline, provided the legislation becomes law within the specified time period.

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Primary Rule

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What specific change to long-term capital gains taxation is being considered?

The proposed legislation aims to modify how long-term capital gains are taxed or calculated, potentially impacting individual tax liabilities. Specific details of the changes are subject to ongoing congressional discussions.

When does the market resolve for this legislation?

The market resolves on January 1, 2027, based on whether the legislation has been enacted by that date. If no law is passed by then, the market will resolve accordingly.

What factors influence the odds for this event?

Odds are influenced by congressional actions, public opinion on tax reform, and statements from lawmakers regarding the proposed changes. Key votes and committee discussions also play a significant role in shaping market expectations.

Will legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated become law before Jan 1, 2027: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

The latest available prices are Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?: 4.5¢ on Kalshi, 5.5¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Will legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated become law before Jan 1, 2027?

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Will legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated become law before Jan 1, 2027?

About This Market

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Market Rulebook: Will legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Frequently Asked Questions

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