Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027? - 7% Chance (Live)

Live Markets

2 platforms

OutcomeConsensus

Kalshi

Polymarket

Best price

WT

Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027

7%

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	4.4%	2¢	7¢	93¢	98¢
Polymarket	9.0%	7¢	11¢	89¢	93¢

Kalshi

Polymarket

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If the top rate of corporate federal tax is reduced below 21% before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market will resolve to Yes even if the tax rate is only lowered for future years. Other provisions that may affect the amount of corporate tax paid by a given corporation, but are not the corporate income tax rate-- such as rules affecting what income counts as taxable or affecting deductions, credits, and other tax attributes relevant to corporations--do not affect the resolution of the Contract. Surtaxes imposed on (or removed from) taxable income or (adjusted) gross income are encompassed in the Payout Criterion. Increases in taxes imposed on (or removed from) specific kinds of corporate income that are not taxable income or (adjusted) gross income are not relevant for the Payout Criterion.

Resolution Oracles

Library of Congress

Polymarket

Primary Rule

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the corporate tax rate in the United States below 21% at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors could influence Trump's decision on corporate taxes?

Economic conditions, public opinion, and pressure from business groups may all play a role in Trump's decision-making process regarding corporate taxes. Additionally, the political climate leading up to the 2024 election could impact his stance.

How do prediction markets determine the odds for this event?

Prediction markets aggregate the views of participants who buy and sell shares based on their expectations of the event occurring. As new information emerges, such as economic reports or political developments, the odds can fluctuate.

What are the potential consequences of cutting corporate taxes?

Cutting corporate taxes could lead to increased investment from businesses, potentially stimulating economic growth. However, it may also raise concerns about budget deficits and income inequality.

Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027: 4.4¢ on Kalshi, 9.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.