Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Live prediction market odds for Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and Opinion and Predict.fun.
Listed Updated Expected to settle by
Traders give Before Jan 20, 2029 about a 16.5% chance. Before Jan 1, 2028 follows at 12.5%, December 31 follows at 1.8%, and Before Dec 1, 2026 follows at 1.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, Opinion, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.4 percentage points.
KalshiPolymarket USPolymarketOpinionPredict.funBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Opinion and Polymarket and Polymarket US and Predict.fun.
KalshiIf the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
OpinionThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Polymarket USPredict.funThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Government disclosures, scientific discoveries, and public pressure for transparency could all play significant roles. Additionally, advancements in space exploration and technology may provide new evidence.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on the likelihood of specific outcomes. Prices fluctuate based on collective beliefs and information, reflecting the perceived probability of events.
Confirming alien existence could reshape scientific paradigms and influence public policy regarding space exploration. It may also spark widespread cultural and philosophical discussions about humanity's place in the universe.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, Opinion, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Before Jan 20, 2029: 16.5¢ on Kalshi; Before Jan 1, 2028: 12.5¢ on Kalshi; December 31: 2.1¢ on Kalshi, 1.6¢ on Polymarket, 1.5¢ on Polymarket US, 3.7¢ on Opinion, 1.3¢ on Predict.fun; Before Dec 1, 2026: 1.0¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.
Trader up $73.1K lifetime sold $4.5K of No at 98¢
2h agoWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Trade on Polymarket US Trader up $18.3K lifetime sold $1.3K of No at 98¢
6h agoWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Trade on Polymarket US Trader up $12.5K lifetime sold $5.8K of No at 98¢
15h agoWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Trade on Polymarket US Trader up $82.8K lifetime sold $12.6K of No at 98¢
22h agoWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Trade on Polymarket US Trader up $41.6K lifetime sold $1.2K of No at 98¢
22h agoWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Trade on Polymarket US 
