New Zealand general election winner?
Live prediction market odds for New Zealand general election winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Listed Updated Expected to settle by
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Compare all 6 outcomes across 2 venuesTraders give Labour Party about a 31.5% chance. National Party follows at 68.8%, ACT New Zealand follows at 0.1%, and Green Party follows at 0.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 62.0 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the National party wins the next New Zealand general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. For referendums, "Yes" and "No" are the options. For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) is the winner. Markets resolve based on official results, not exit polls or projections. If elections are postponed beyond the expiration date, markets resolve to No. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.
The New Zealand general election determines the country's government and leadership for the next term. The outcome can significantly influence domestic policies, economic strategies, and international relations.
The New Zealand general election is scheduled for November 7, 2026. This date is crucial as it sets the stage for the political landscape in the country for the following years.
Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking the winner of the New Zealand general election. They provide real-time odds reflecting market sentiment and expectations leading up to the election.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Labour Party: 62.5¢ on Kalshi, 0.5¢ on Polymarket; National Party: 38.5¢ on Kalshi, 99.0¢ on Polymarket; ACT New Zealand: 0.1¢ on Polymarket; Green Party: 0.1¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.
Trader up $371K lifetime bought $14.7K of Yes at 97¢
1d agoWill National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Trade on Kalshi Trader up $371K lifetime bought $9.6K of Yes at 97¢
1d agoWill National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Trade on Kalshi Trader up $363K lifetime bought $1.9K of No at 98¢
1d agoWill Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Trade on Kalshi Trader up $363K lifetime bought $1.6K of No at 98¢
2d agoWill Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Trade on Kalshi Trader up $369K lifetime bought $1.5K of Yes at 98¢
2d agoWill National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Trade on Kalshi 
