Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? - 42% Chance (Live)

Live Markets

2 platforms

OutcomeConsensus

Kalshi

Polymarket

Best price

WB

Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026

42%

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	40.5%	40¢	41¢	59¢	60¢
Polymarket	43.5%	42¢	45¢	55¢	58¢

Kalshi

Polymarket

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Bitcoin outperforms gold in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The performance of gold will be determined by using ICE Data Service's prices provided by a variety of financial institutions. The performance of Bitcoin will be determined by using the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index.

Resolution Oracles

Bloomberg News CNBC Coinbase CoinGecko Financial Times Reuters The Wall Street Journal

Polymarket

Primary Rule

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized. If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic Oraclefr.tradingview.com tradingview.com

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors could influence Bitcoin's performance against Gold?

Market trends, regulatory changes, and macroeconomic conditions can significantly impact Bitcoin's value. Additionally, investor behavior and technological advancements in the crypto space may also play a role.

How do prediction markets determine the odds for this event?

Odds are determined by the collective insights and bets of participants in the market. As new information becomes available, such as market trends or economic indicators, the odds can fluctuate.

Why is the comparison between Bitcoin and Gold relevant?

Bitcoin and Gold are often viewed as alternative stores of value, especially during economic uncertainty. Investors frequently assess their performance relative to each other to make informed decisions about asset allocation.

Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026: 40.5¢ on Kalshi, 43.5¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.