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Traders give Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026 about a 32.0% chance. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.0 percentage points.
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
Live prediction market odds for Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Traders give Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026 about a 32.0% chance. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.0 percentage points.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Bitcoin outperforms gold in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The performance of gold will be determined by using ICE Data Service's prices provided by a variety of financial institutions. The performance of Bitcoin will be determined by using the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized. If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.
Market trends, regulatory changes, and macroeconomic conditions can significantly impact Bitcoin's value. Additionally, investor behavior and technological advancements in the crypto space may also play a role.
Odds are determined by the collective insights and bets of participants in the market. As new information becomes available, such as market trends or economic indicators, the odds can fluctuate.
Bitcoin and Gold are often viewed as alternative stores of value, especially during economic uncertainty. Investors frequently assess their performance relative to each other to make informed decisions about asset allocation.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026: 31.5¢ on Kalshi, 32.5¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.