About This Market
Traders give Before January 21, 2029 about a 19.5% chance. Before 2027 follows at 2.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi.
Live prediction market odds for Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?. Compare prices across Kalshi.
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Traders give Before January 21, 2029 about a 19.5% chance. Before 2027 follows at 2.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi.
Before January 21, 2029
19.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the United States acquires any part of Greenland before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
An announcement by the United States and the entity that controls any part of Greenland that it will happen is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. any part of Greenland must come under formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, where it was not previously. Merely leasing a given part in territory – for example, setting up a military base on leased territory – is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Before January 21, 2029: 19.5¢ on Kalshi; Before 2027: 2.8¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A cross-platform comparison needs available prices for the same outcome on at least two venues.
For example, Before January 21, 2029 at 19.5¢ implies about a 19.5% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.