Anthropic IPO Odds Slip to 70% as Firmus Pulls A$8B ASX Listing

Traders on Kalshi's "Which Companies will officially announce an IPO this year?" market put Anthropic at 70% as of Oct. 13, down from 75% three days earlier. Anthropic has not publicly announced an IPO. It confidentially submitted a draft S-1 to the SEC on June 1, 2026, through a Rule 135 notice that left share count and price unset and tied timing to market conditions. Firmus, an AI data centre developer backed by Nvidia and Blackstone, withdrew its roughly A$8 billion ASX IPO on Friday after weak investor demand, Forbes Australia reported. US 10-year Treasury yields also rose above 5%.

The sources point to a weaker market for new listings. None reports a setback specific to Anthropic.

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Firmus Withdrawal and 5% Yields Hit the IPO Window, Not Anthropic

Firmus cited market volatility when it pulled its listing. The withdrawal extends a third-quarter run of postponed and withdrawn deals, including Oura, Holtec Nuclear, Amaero and Bamboo Insurance, plus KKR's MMI Holdings and Perennial China Retail Trust in Singapore. A 10-year yield above 5% raises the discount rate applied to long-dated growth earnings. That hurts a company that, according to leaked S-1 figures reported by Reuters and Fortune, posted an operating loss of more than $8 billion on about $4.6 billion of fiscal 2025 revenue.

None of the reviewed sources reports a change to Anthropic's own plans. Bloomberg reported around Oct. 1 that Anthropic was targeting a Nov. 9 marketing start, before Thanksgiving. Earlier, in September, Reuters had reported a mid-October launch at the earliest. Investors have projected a valuation of roughly $2 trillion, up from the $965 billion post-money valuation of its $65 billion Series H in May. Anthropic has not confirmed the timetable, and a confidential filing does not count as a public announcement. The sources also do not establish that Firmus or yields caused the 5-point move. The timing is coincident and consistent with that reading, but not proven.

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What Could Move Anthropic's IPO Odds Next

The clearest reversal signal would be a public S-1 appearing on EDGAR. That flip normally comes before a roadshow, and it had not appeared in the sources reviewed. Reuters had expected the public prospectus in late September, so the filing is already past that projection. Anthropic's investor event on Oct. 14 is the nearest checkpoint for any confirmation or delay of the reported November marketing start.

Outside Anthropic, traders will watch whether 10-year yields stay above 5% and whether other deals clear. SoftBank-backed OPay is planning a roughly $500 million US listing, according to GMT Eight, and Kuaishou's Kling AI has selected banks for a Hong Kong IPO of at least $1 billion. Pricing for every name in the Which Companies will officially announce an IPO this year market depends on whether those deals price or follow Firmus off the calendar.