Digger's Best Picture Nomination Odds Rise to 26% Despite Bad Reviews

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Will Digger Get a Best Picture Oscar Nomination? Market Odds Climb to 26%

Digger has a 26% implied probability of a Best Picture nomination at the 99th Academy Awards as of Oct. 13, so it remains an underdog, and the case against it is substantial. Alejandro G. Iñárritu's climate satire, starring Tom Cruise as oil tycoon Digger Rockwell, holds about 52% on Rotten Tomatoes and roughly 45 to 46 on Metacritic. It opened to about $8 million in fifth place with a C+ CinemaScore. Most of Gold Derby's editors' individual Best Picture predictions as of early-to-mid October exclude it from their top 10.

Live market odds

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Oscar nominations for Best Picture?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi and Polymarket.

DiggerIn this story

21%

PolymarketBest price5.00x20¢Kalshi4.35x23¢

The Odyssey

98%

Kalshi1.01x99¢

Project Hail Mary

79%

Kalshi1.23x81¢

Dune: Part Three

82%

Kalshi1.19x84¢

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Traders are moving the other way. Digger's implied probability stood at 26% on Oct. 13, up roughly 9 percentage points from 17% over the previous three days. The source material does not fix the start date of that window, so the exact starting date requires confirmation. Kalshi prices the contract at 29% and Polymarket at 24%, a 5-point spread between the two venues.

The gap with expert opinion drives this story. Gold Derby's combined odds page lists many other films ahead of Digger. The Academy can nominate up to 10 films.

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What Is Keeping Digger in the Oscar Conversation

Cruise's campaign is the strongest remaining asset. He is actively working the circuit, and Gold Derby's postmortem calls the film "down but not out," with Cruise fourth in its expert Best Actor rankings behind Matt Damon, John Malkovich and Andrew Scott. The same analysis rates Makeup & Hairstyling as a strong possibility, landing in the top 3 of some rankings. Iñárritu's Best Director standing, by contrast, fell sharply after the first screenings.

Prominent defenders have also come forward. Alfonso Cuarón, Guillermo del Toro, Anne Hathaway and Jane Fonda have publicly backed the film, though the available sources do not date each statement. Awards Daily argued on Oct. 9 that Digger deserves a Best Picture nod. Those endorsements coincided with the price rise, but the sources do not establish that they caused it, and we could not establish what triggered the move.

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What Could Confirm or Reverse Digger's Best Picture Odds

The counter-case rests on nearly every measurable signal. Gold Derby compared Digger's reviews and path to Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close. The Lines framed the earlier reaction as poor reviews killing Digger's market. Early season roundups at ScreenRant, Vulture and the Oct. 12 power rankings offer the field context the market must overcome.

The next checkable signals are Gold Derby's next ranking update and Digger's second-weekend box office. A return to Gold Derby's top 10 would support the rebound, while a steep box office drop would undercut it. Readers can track the full field on the Oscar Best Picture nominations market page. The contract resolves when nominations are announced on Jan. 21, 2027.