Alex Mealer Beats Briscoe Cain in TX-09 Runoff, Priced at 84%

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Alex Mealer's Chances of Winning TX-09 Rise to 84% After Runoff Win Over Briscoe Cain

Alex Mealer (R) is a strong favorite to win Texas's 9th Congressional District, priced at 84% on Polymarket's TX-09 House Election Winner market on Oct. 13. She beat state Rep. Briscoe Cain 68.3% to 31.7% in the May 26 Republican runoff. She now faces Democrat Leticia Gutierrez on November 3 in a district Texas Republicans redrew to lean GOP, roughly R+19 on 2024 results, according to the Texas Tribune.

Live market odds

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TX-09 House Election Winner

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Alex Mealer (R)In this story

83%

Polymarket USBest price1.20x83¢Polymarket1.19x84¢

Leticia Gutierrez (D)

17%

PolymarketBest price5.56x18¢Polymarket US5.26x19¢

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The price is up from 78% three days earlier, which was the lowest in that window.

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How the TX-09 Market Priced Mealer After the May 26 Runoff

The runoff was not close. Mealer took 15,625 votes to Cain's 7,257 out of 22,882 cast, Houston Public Media reported. On March 3, she had led a nine-candidate field with only 36.0% to Cain's 31.3%. Cain had Gov. Greg Abbott's backing. Mealer had President Trump's endorsement, and outside groups including Club for Growth spent over $1.1 million on her behalf.

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The runoff settled who carries the Republican label. However, the 78% to 84% repricing came over the three days ending Oct. 13, months after the result, and we could not establish what triggered that move.

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What Could Still Change Mealer's TX-09 Odds in November

The district's structure explains why traders price Mealer as a strong favorite. Decision Desk HQ's forecast gives her 90%. Still, Rice professor Mark Jones has called TX-09 the only Houston-area seat with real uncertainty. The sources do not break down what the market's remaining 16% reflects.

Gutierrez, a community organizer, won her primary with about 54%. Mealer has faced questions about her address: she does not live in the district and has said she would move there if elected. Her campaign reported roughly $2.08 million raised and $362,000 cash on hand, per Midterm Mondays.

Live pricing sits on the TX-09 House Election Winner market page. The next checkpoint is Election Day, November 3, with the market resolving November 4.