Colom Leads Hyde-Smith by 1,764 Votes; Senate Market Prices Him at 97%

Democrat Scott Colom leads the Mississippi Senate race, but he has not won it. As of Nov. 5, 2026, Colom led Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by roughly 1,700 to 1,800 votes, about 49.04% to 48.85%, with more than 95% of roughly 951,000 votes counted. Independent Ty Pinkins held about 2.1%. NBC News describes the race as too close to call, and no call is expected before about Nov. 10.

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Is Scott Colom Winning the Mississippi Senate Race Against Cindy Hyde-Smith?

Colom's lead has grown as counting continued. He was ahead by 65 votes early on Nov. 4, according to the BBC. By Nov. 5, The Hill reported he led by just more than 1,800 votes, citing Decision Desk HQ, while Mississippi Today put the margin at 1,764. On the Mississippi Senate winner? market, traders moved Colom from 16% to 97% over three days. Kalshi and Polymarket both priced him at 97% on Nov. 5.

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That price is far more confident than the count. About 3,600 absentee ballots and an estimated 14,000 to 18,000 affidavit ballots were still outstanding on Nov. 5.

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Why Colom's Lead Is a Surprise in a Race Rated Likely Republican

Before Election Day, Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections all rated the race Likely Republican. In late October, Polymarket priced Hyde-Smith at about 87%. Colom's own contract fell as low as 8% before the count began moving in his favor.

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Chart shows trader-implied probability on the Mississippi Senate winner? market. It is not a vote count or a forecast.

County results show where Colom gained ground. According to Mississippi Today, he flipped DeSoto, Lafayette and Madison counties and narrowed his losses in Harrison County. Axios reported that Black voters backed him at about 91%, an estimate it attributed to the New York Times. Outside money also flowed into the race. Senate Majority PAC placed a $1.2 million ad buy, Kamala Harris and Bill Clinton campaigned for him, and Barack Obama appeared in an ad. On the Republican side, the Senate Leadership Fund also spent in the race. Colom told NBC News that national Democrats had unfairly written off Mississippi voters.

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What Affidavit and Absentee Ballots Remain in the Mississippi Senate Race?

The uncounted pool is large compared with the margin. About 3,600 absentee ballots plus 14,000 to 18,000 affidavit ballots adds up to roughly 17,600 to 21,600 votes. That is about 10 to 12 times Colom's 1,764-vote lead. Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day count if they arrive within five business days, which sets a Nov. 10 cutoff. Counties must certify results by Nov. 13.

The two camps disagree about where the affidavit ballots point. Mississippi Today reports that many are concentrated in Democratic-leaning Hinds County. Others sit in Republican areas, including the Gulf Coast and Rankin County. Colom argues that affidavit ballots trend Democratic, and campaign manager Gerard Henderson said the lead would grow. Hyde-Smith's campaign said "every legally cast vote" would reelect her.

Both sides are preparing for court. Mississippi has no automatic or candidate-requested recount, so any recount requires a court order. The state also has no statewide mechanism for contesting a Senate general election. The NRSC sent a letter demanding that affidavit ballots be preserved and kept separate. The House Black Caucus PAC is raising money for recount efforts.

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Are There Polls for Scott Colom (D) in the Mississippi Senate Race?

The sources reviewed for this article did not include public polling of the race. The available outside measures before Election Day were the Likely Republican ratings and the market prices. The ratings are expert judgments, not polls, and none of them anticipated a Colom lead.

The market and the ratings now measure different things. The ratings, like any pre-election poll, reflected expectations before votes were cast. The 97% price reflects traders' reading of an actual count that shows Colom ahead with more than 95% reported. Pinkins has said he will not withdraw and claims he drew votes from Republicans. The sources do not confirm that claim.

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What the 97% Price on Colom Means, and How the Market Settles

A 97% price is a trader-implied probability, not a certified result. Some uncertainty remains. Up to 21,600 ballots are still uncounted, the geography of the affidavit ballots splits between Democratic and Republican strongholds, and a court fight is expected. Those factors could narrow or reverse a lead of about 1,764 votes.

The market lists a resolution date of Nov. 18. The sources reviewed do not say whether it resolves on a media call or on certification, so readers should check the rules on the Mississippi Senate winner market page.

Key items to watch:

• Absentee ballot arrivals through Nov. 10
• Affidavit ballot counts in Hinds, Rankin and the Gulf Coast counties
• Any court filings seeking a recount
• County certification on Nov. 13