Lisnard's 2027 Odds Slip to 13% Despite 3.41x Volume and RTL Poll
3 venues15%Up2 ptsfrom 13% when published, 3 days ago
- Traders piled into the French election market at more than three times the usual pace, yet Lisnard's chances still edged lower.
David Lisnard's 2027 Election Market Hit $990,051 in One Day, 3.41x Its Weekly Average
David Lisnard's chances of winning the 2027 French presidential election fell from about 16% to 13% as of 10 November 2026, a drop of roughly 3 percentage points, despite the heaviest trading in weeks. The market "Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?" recorded $990,051 in volume across 11,893 trades on 9 November, against a prior seven-day average of $290,227 per day. That is 3.41 times the baseline, a lift of $699,825.
Lisnard's price remains above its period low of 11%. The sources show heavy trading and a lower price; they do not show who traded or why.
How Lisnard's Market Volume Compares With the Last 30 Days
The multiplier is simple to reproduce: take the latest completed UTC day's dollar volume and divide it by the average daily volume of the seven days before it. Here, $990,051 divided by $290,227 equals 3.41. The calculation excludes the current partial day and isolated hourly bursts, so a single burst of trades cannot produce it.
Three limits apply. The observed history covers only 29 days, which is not the market's age, so this article makes no claim about records beyond that window. The dollar figure combines two venues. And volume counts every matched trade, so it reveals nothing about whether buyers favoured YES or NO on Lisnard.
Why Did Trading Volume in Lisnard's Market Jump on 9 November?
Three dated developments landed on the same day as the volume surge.
The RTL poll. A Toluna Harris Interactive survey for RTL and M6, published by RTL on 9 November, reported that Lisnard's breakthrough "se confirme," placing him at about 7-9%. The same poll showed Marine Le Pen at 34-36% and Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 18-19%, both widening their lead over Édouard Philippe. That pattern fits earlier surveys: Lisnard scored 6% in an Ifop-Fiducial poll for LCI and Sud Radio in mid-October and 8% in a Cluster17 poll for Politico, ahead of Bruno Retailleau in both.
Teddy Riner's announcement. The judo champion declared a 2027 candidacy, saying "la résignation n'est pas une option," according to franceinfo. Le Parisien followed with a look at where he stands in polling. Riner's entry adds a name to the field rather than new evidence about Lisnard's vote share.
Thierry Breton's opening. The former European commissioner "ne ferme pas la porte" to a run, franceinfo reported. Le Figaro's live coverage the same day tracked the poll alongside the scramble on the right.
The counter-case deserves weight. A poll that confirms an existing rise carries little fresh information, and the price fell rather than rose. More entrants on the centre and right could plausibly crowd Lisnard's lane, but timing does not prove causation, and nothing in the sources identifies the traders or their side.
The 2027 French Presidential Market: Who Is Priced Where and Where It Trades
The tradable contract is the winner market for the 2027 French presidential election, with a Lisnard outcome that resolves by 30 April 2027. Prices for rival outcomes were not in the supplied data, so this article cites Le Pen and Mélenchon only through polling.
Four venues list the Lisnard outcome, with a narrow spread between them as of 10 November: Polymarket and Polymarket US at 14%, Kalshi at 12%, and Predict.fun at 11%. The 9 November volume came from two of them. Polymarket handled $874,242 across 11,461 trades, about 88% of dollar volume and 96% of trades. Kalshi handled $115,810 across 432 trades, about 12% of dollars.
Live market odds
4 venuesWho will win the 2027 French presidential election?
Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket and Predict.fun.
David LisnardIn this story
16%Marine Le Pen
49%Jean-Luc Mélenchon
13%Christine Lagarde
6%New to Kalshi? Get a $55 trading bonus
Code PRED55. New users only. Eligibility restrictions and terms apply.
Are There Polls for David Lisnard?
Yes. The 9 November RTL/Toluna Harris Interactive poll puts him around 7-9%, below his 13% market price. The two figures measure different things: a poll estimates first-round vote intention, while the market prices the probability of winning the presidency. The gap is not evidence of mispricing. The sources supplied here contain no sourced Lisnard-versus-Philippe or Lisnard-versus-Retailleau head-to-head figures.
Lisnard, mayor of Cannes, left Les Républicains in March 2026 and runs under his movement Nouvelle Énergie, which claims over 100,000 members. He told BFMTV on 3 November that he had gathered the 500 sponsorships required to stand. Critics, including MoDem's Marc Fesneau, oppose his inclusion in a centre-right primary, and Philippe currently rejects a primary altogether.
What Could Keep Lisnard Market Activity Elevated, or Let It Fade
Watch three signals. First, follow-up polls and whether Riner or Breton formalise or extend their campaigns. Second, whether daily volume stays above the $290,227 baseline; a quick return toward it would mark 9 November as a one-day event. Third, whether Polymarket keeps its dominant share or Kalshi's 12% slice grows.
Live prices across every outcome sit on the 2027 French presidential election odds page. This reading rests on one market, 29 days of history and two active venues.
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The story so far: Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?
8 updates · Jul 7 – Sep 5
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