Colts' AFC South Odds Fall to 4% After Ballard Firing, Titans Loss

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Colts' AFC South Chances Fall to 4% After Ballard Firing

The Indianapolis Colts' chances in the AFC South: Total Wins market fell from 11% to 4% over three days after owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon fired general manager Chris Ballard on Oct. 19, 2026, according to AP News. The dismissal came one day after a 26-20 home loss to the previously winless Tennessee Titans that dropped Indianapolis to 2-4, per Colts.com.

On Polymarket, the drop was about 7 percentage points. The price stood at 4% on Oct. 20, the lowest level in that window. Both the Titans loss and the firing came just before or during the decline.

Live market odds

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AFC South: Total Wins

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Indianapolis ColtsIn this story

5%

Polymarket16.67x6¢

Houston Texans

24%

Polymarket4.00x25¢

Jacksonville Jaguars

69%

Polymarket1.43x70¢

Tennessee Titans

1%

Polymarket47.62x2.1¢

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How the Colts' Market Moved From 11% to 4% in Three Days

The sequence began Sunday, Oct. 18. Indianapolis led Tennessee by 13 points at halftime and lost 26-20 to a team that entered the game without a win. Fans booed in the second half. AP News reported that the collapse included a Jonathan Taylor fumble, Daniel Jones interceptions and a blocked punt. Defensive tackle DeForest Buckner told NFL.com he was "sick and tired of the same song and dance every year."

On Monday, Oct. 19, Irsay-Gordon relieved Ballard of his duties. Head coach Shane Steichen said he respected Ballard, took responsibility as head coach and said the team's goals had not changed, according to Colts.com.

The sources do not establish how much of the drop came after the loss and how much came after the firing.

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Colts' Next Test: Week 7 vs. the Vikings

Indianapolis plays the undefeated Minnesota Vikings in Week 7 at U.S. Bank Stadium, per Colts.com. Steichen said his focus is on preparing the team for that game. The roster is also changing heading into the matchup: tight end Will Mallory was activated from IR and Darius Slayton was released.

A road loss to an unbeaten opponent would support the 4% price. An upset in Minneapolis would be the first evidence that could reverse it. Readers can follow the Colts' price after kickoff on the AFC South total wins market page. The market resolves Jan. 4, 2027.